Tuesday 3 December 2013

I am not depressed but...

It's a number one hit, the NHS medical miracle, not just in the UK but all around the developed world.
Yes, it's the antidepressant pill.


The use of these drugs has risen to ever higher levels across the developed world since the SSRI (selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors) compounds were first introduced  in the early 1990s. A recent Guardian news paper story highlights the rising usage, http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/nov/20/antidepressant-use-rise-world-oecd


Prozac (chemical name Fluoxetine) also known as SarafemLadose and Fontex and it's sister chemical Citalopram have radically changed the medical world's response to depression treatment.


They are used to treat anxiety, blushing, panic and all manner of nervous disorders. For some the treatment works well for others the outcome can be worse than the condition. The list of side effects is long and rather troubling (see the Wikipedia page for more information http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluoxetine) and although there may be only a low percentage of user that have suicidal thoughts as a result of taking the tablets, some will act on those thoughts.


So ban them then?


The flip side of the coin is how many people would have taken their lives if they had not been taking anti-depressants? In fact according to the NHS higher usage of the treatment coincides with reducing suicide rates (http://www.nhs.uk/news/2013/07July/Pages/Prozac-nation-claim-as-antidepressant-use-soars.aspx)


So a ban seems unreasonable.


So are we really using them correctly? Are GPs just a bit too keen to pick up the prescription pad instead of looking at alternative approaches? Probably.  However talking therapies (CBT, Counselling, even hypnotherapy) take time, skilled staff and....money. Drugs are relatively cheap, typically start working within 6 weeks and for most cause few side effects.


The problem is that they do not changes the patient's situation or thoughts patterns associated with the situation. It's a chemical fix for a life problem in many cases. It would appear that there are far more prescriptions issued than there are depressed people and so it seems we are trying to actually treat unhappiness in many cases.


Unhappiness is though, a completely natural condition, all of us will be unhappy at some point. It happens when we compare our situation as it is with the situation that we want or have a mental model of. That desired model may be unrealistic (talking therapy may help) or it may be realistic in different circumstances. (Can the patient change the circumstances?). But unhappiness is not depression and we should stop trying to treat it with drugs. As for life models not to follow, avoiding the celebrity news in the Daily Mail and elsewhere might be a good place to begin.

Monday 30 September 2013

Drain or radiator; which are you? - Podcast

We all know people who can drain the positive energy in a room simply by being there. Probably you also know some people who can lift the most despondent situation.

It's useful to think of these different people as drains (on your emotions) or radiators (of positive energy). But is that the whole story? This 6 minute podcast explores the idea further.

Sunday 8 September 2013

Edgar Cayce - what an intriguing life

Edgar Cayce was born in the 19th century and lived through the first half of the 20th.

He is often seen as a seer or prophet. He used a self hypnosis technique to access a source of information (sprirt or other-worldly) that provided information on treatments for medical conditions.

Deeply grounded in a Christian faith his ability to give 'readings' often gave him doubts about how he should use this 'gift'.

Whilst giving his readings in what seemed to be a self-hypnotic state, he was unaware of the information he provided.

He story in written the book Story of Edgar Cayce: There is a river by Thomas Sugrue. http://www.amazon.com/Story-Edgar-Cayce-There-River/dp/0876043759

I am part way through reading the book and find myself absolutely intrigued by the story and the messages in it.

Well worth a look for the enquiring mind.

Wednesday 28 August 2013

What can time and dedication achieve? A great deal

I saw this report in the Daily Mail newspaper and it reminded me that in this age of the pre-packed, pre-prepared almost everything, you can build extraordinary things from scratch.
The part finished cathedral 12 miles outside of Madrid

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2402990/Former-monk-Justo-Gallego-Martinez-spends-50-YEARS-creating-giant-cathedral-junk.html

A cathedral built from junk and discarded building materials,  by just one former monk, without a crane over the course of 50 years.

Of course as construction has taken so long, Juston Gallego Martinez may never see his church completed but when asked about the building by the BBC he said
'If I lived my life again, I'd build this cathedral again only bigger.
'Twice the size, because for me, this is an act of faith.'

The former Trappist monk who started construction of the cathedral after surviving TB
It makes me wonder about what anyone can achieve give simple time, effort and dedication.


Saturday 17 August 2013

On the nature of death

It sounds like a morbid title for a blog post doesn't it?

I've been thinking about death, not the dying bit or even what comes after death (if anything). No, more on what impact our individual lives have on the world.  What do we leave behind? Which people did we touch in some way? What mark did we leave on the universe?

All this pondering started with the death of Frank. Frank was not a relative, he was an older man who lived across the road from me. How old was he? Perhaps in his middle eighties, I have lived in the same house for more than 10 years now and he seemed elderly even when I moved in.

We passed the time of day, said hello and good morning, even sent each other Christmas cards but truthfully I didn't know much about him.

Recently an ambulance arrived near our house, it's not often a good sign having the yellowy green wagon parked up. This time it was for Frank. His final journey whilst in this world.

So it fell to his family to clear his home and deal with his estate. There followed a succession of skips placed on his driveway. The contents of his life were piled into them. One affected me more than the others, it had a child's plastic jeep toy perched on the top. I imagine it had been kept back as a toy for the grandchildren to play with.  It was a bit like this one in the picture.

Is this what we are left with?


 And that's when I almost cried. Is that all a man's life is? I asked myself. A collection of skips and 20 black plastic bags of rubbish to be cleared from a home?

Of course not; but it was a deeply sobering moment. What mark do we leave on the universe when our physical self is gone? If we have children then in a sense we have a mark that continues into the future but what else? For those of us who do not write great literature or create wonderful works of art, what do we leave? Are we no more than a few builders skips of stuff and 20 black plastic bin bags?

In a way this is our search for significance, our ego wanting to have its way. But still each of us searches for that significance.

Then I spoke with a friend who had similar discussions and had been told about a book called 'The five people you meet in heaven'. It's on Amazon here
http://www.amazon.com/The-Five-People-Meet-Heaven/dp/1401391346

I have yet to read it, but it's a parable about the impacts and effects we have on people as we travel through life, effects that we may be barely aware of.

Perhaps your smile one morning helped someone to keep going instead of taking an overdose. Perhaps as you let a car out form a side road you prevented an accident that would have maimed another. Perhaps our search for significance is that accumulation of simple good deeds that helped others be better than they would have been.

What mark will you be leaving on the universe?

Monday 22 July 2013

Did you watch the TV program about Uri Geller?

In the UK yesterday, the BBC screened a program about Uri Geller.
Uri Geller (Wikipedia picture)

For people in the UK who remember the early 1970's, Uri Geller was a sensation. He bent spoons using telekinesis, he restarted broken watches (from a distance) and used remote viewing skills to 'see' the picture drawn by another person in a sealed envelope. At least he did if you took these things at face value. There are plenty of skeptics out there say he is nothing more than a savvy showman. Those skeptics include James Randi (http://www.randi.org/site/) who specialises in debunking paranormal events.

So I watched the program as an interested skeptic. I could recall his appearances on TV in my childhood and the number of people in the UK who tried to bend spoons with the power of the mind. It was quite an event whenever Geller was on TV.

I settled down to watch the program (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b037k0c5) and discovered lots that I had not known about the man; for example about his being a paratrooper in the Israeli 6Day War in 1967, nor that he now lived in the UK.

Nor was I aware of his work with US Government agencies in the realm of remote viewing. He certainly seems to have convinced some scientists and researchers that he had some unusual abilities. (see more detail here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uri_Geller)  Geller himself chose on several occasions during the program to self censor saying he could not talk about that event or situation.

So is he a fraudster or a man gifted with telekinesis? A trickster or a man with most unusual powers? I'm not sure, it was certainly intriguing and worth a hour of your time to watch the program. (The BBC link may not work if you are outside the UK)

Tuesday 9 July 2013

Does hot weather = a short temper?

Warm weather is generally welcomed by most people, it seems to lift the mood and bring a feeling of well being to all.

But hot weather? That may be different. There have been attempts to make the direct connection between the temperature and increased crime levels but the correlation is not always clear.

 Some articles that consider this point:
http://weakonomics.com/2009/07/30/why-crime-is-higher-when-its-hot-why-economics-fails-us/

and


http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/07/hot-weather-violence/


But even as the true nature of links between violence and hot weather remain uncertain, one 1976 study stands out in its simplicity and practicality: Angry people can be soothed with a cold drink.

 However I think there is enough evidence to suggest that when very hot our tolerance to annoying outside factors is reduced compared to when we are at more usual temperatures. It may not be that you are annoyed but perhaps just feel a little uncomfortable.



So what can you do if you don't have an air conditioned car or building to slip into and cool off?


Use the power of your imagination. Imagine you are some where cooler, perhaps recall a time when you walked through the chilled goods section of the supermarket. Allow yourself to fully engage in the imagination of the moment to quote Paul McKenna "See what you saw, hear what you heard, feel what you felt".


Your mind and the autonomic nervous system will do the rest so that for a long as you stay in that imaginery cool spot, things will feel a little more comfortable.



Alternatively, take a deep breathe in, breathe out slow and then sip the chilled drink of your choice in a shady spot.

Wednesday 3 July 2013

3 simple (free) ways to reduce anxiety

I see many clients who have anxiety, it is a very common condition in our society today.

If you see your GP about this it's likely that they will prescribe some form of anti-depressant or beta blocker. If you are fortunate perhaps you will be offered some form of counselling.

Some what simple steps can you take to reduce anxiety?

1) It is far more useful to consider that you are 'doing anxiety' rather than feeling anxious. It's a simple but important distinction as it opens up the possibility of change. If you are 'doing anxiety' right now perhaps you can do calmness later.

2) Cut out sources of caffeine; tea coffee, coke, Red Bull etc. If you are feeling anxious the last thing you need is extra stimulation.

3) Make sure you have as well a balanced diet as you can. Fresh fruit and vegetables provide you with B vitamins and magnesium that tend to reduce anxiety.

One extra; drink plenty of water. Being even a little dehydrated will raise your anxiety.

Wednesday 19 June 2013

The move to Linux continued, fonts

If you have followed my previous posts you'll know that I recently made the move to Linux. (In this case Linux Mint Debian Edition)

Things have been going well so far but as I create my own marketing materials for my hypnotherapy practice, I'm interested in the graphic side of things.

I used Scribus to create an A5 leaflet but discovered that the standard fonts loaded with the distribution were rather...limited.

However I have discovered that it is possible to bring many of the fonts from your Windows machine to your shiny new Linux one.

Rather than explain the whole process take a look at this web page http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/installing-fonts-linux.

I right clicked on my Windows font folder and zipped it into a 40Megabyte file. I transfered this to the new machine with an external hard drive.

Then it's drag and drop time.

I found that I needed to create a new .font folder in my home subdirectory. Then it was a case of unzip the package in the folder.

The next time you open your word processor or DTP program you'll have nearly all your Windows fonts available. I lost some; I'll guess that this is because of some licensing issues. However I'm well pleased to see my favourite fonts on my new machine.

Tuesday 11 June 2013

Moving to Linux part 3, audio recording & mixing

I have recently made the move from Windows to Linux. these few articles will hopefully prove useful to others taking the same journey.

Audio Applications
My work with audio is based on my own need to record, mix and produce self hypnosis tracks for download and for use in my own client sessions. There are other far better resources online for how to set up microphones etc.

To record audio
You can of course record audio straight into your Linux laptop or desktop PC as long as it is equipped with a microphone. The quality is unlikely to be very good though. I have, in the past,  used two different recording studios to record voice tracks ready for mixing. However while the quality is excellent it needs more organisation and of course there are costs.

In the end I purchased an Olympus LS11 voice recorder which will save recordings in MP3 or WAV formats.  The files are transferred to the PC over a USB link. However you get those voice files recorded, you'll want a way to edit out the ums, ahhs and random breath noises.

There really is only one tool for this, and that is Audacity. It is available in both Windows and Linux formats. It is a program that you get better at using the more you engage with it (obvious really but you train your ears at the same time). Tips on how to use Audacity are worth a blog post on their own, maybe I'll do that next.

Take a look at it here http://audacity.sourceforge.net/

Once you have cut, spliced and otherwise adjusted your voice file, you may wish to mix it with music or sound effects (there are lots of Audacity audio plug-ins freely available as downloads). Audacity can do this but it feels rather clunky compared to a Digital Audio Workstation (DAW).

I loved Traktion on the Windows platform but its development seemed to be abandoned for a long time. There now seems to be a Linux version so I'll look at this again.

So after much trial and error I settled on Ardour as my DAW. You can see more details about it here http://ardour.org/

I won't pretend to be an expert in Linux audio, I'm not. It is different to Windows but similar enough that I can get reasonable results.

Start with these few applications and a little bit of knowledge about recording and you'll soon have your own tracks (hypnosis or otherwise) mixed and finished.

Monday 10 June 2013

Moving to Linux part 2. What software will work for you?

I wrote previously about making the move to Linux on a new laptop.

Now I'd like to let you know about some of the programs I have found useful in that move.

If Linux is still a mystery to you, the important thing to know is that it is based around the idea of free software. Not just free in the sense of not costing money but also free to be modified and reused without limit. (For more on the concept check out the father of free software Richard M. Stallman).

What this means in practical terms is that almost all the software you need is free (money) but for convenience, not all the software you want is free (open source). Some software uses chunks of non-open source or commercial code especially in areas like audio and video (think YouTube). For some this lack of Open Source is a very big deal, for others less so.

So what about the practical programs you'll want which may not be part of a standard package installation.

Graphics
Photo editing  and picture manipulation (like Photoshop) Gimp.
This is often installed with the standard distribution.

For vector drawing (like Adobe Illustrator) use Inkscape No CMYK colour though)

For Desktop publishing (like Adobe InDesign) use Scribus.

For a drawing program like (Microsoft Visio) use Dia.

For 2D CAD work consider LibreCAD.

Office Packages (Wordprocessor, spreadsheet etc)
As a general purpose package use Libreoffice. It will just about everything you need as an alternative to Microsoft Office.

Some may prefer to use OpenOffice which is available as a free download.

Skype, use Skype there is a native Linux version.

For data storage in the cloud with some great ways to share data use Dropbox. There is a native Linux application.

Video applications (web cam)
To get your webcam working check the following applications. Some may work better than others on your hardware.

Cheese allows you to capture stills and video from your web cam and apply effects too.

Guvcview a more basic webcam application that I found easier to get working on my Asus X53 machine.

Video editing
There seem to be plenty of video editing applications out there but I found two that seems to particularly useful; I have not settled on which one will be my main application yet. The first is Openshot, probably the easier of the two applications to use. It seems to be robust with just enough features to your video edited together. It integrates with Inkscape (see above) for producing fancy titles and graphics (or you can just use what is built in).

The second editing application is Kdenlive. This program seems to have more features including a greater number of effects (video transitions for example) but is possibly slightly less easy to get started with. Try both, the software is free after all!

I'll cover audio and other applications in my next post. So if you are waiting to hear how to record your self hypnosis session, stay tuned!



Saturday 8 June 2013

Linux for the rest of us...(Some shortcuts for you)

I have been dabbling with Linux as an alternative to Microsoft Windows for quite some time.

Especially with the advent of Windows 8 I no longer wanted to stay on the Windows tread mill.

So recently I purchased a new laptop and decided to go Linux.

In case anyone else should find this interesting I'll share my experience in the hope that my limited knowledge in this are can help other people taking the same path.

I bought a manufacturer refurbished Asus X53 (i7 processor) from Morgan Computer Company.

I removed the rather small hard drive (which had Windows installed) once I had established that the machine worked. I replaced the drive with a Toshiba 750Gbyte unit that was on special offer at PC World.

I had previously created a Linux Mint boot DVD (Nadia version) and so put it into the DVD tray and booted up.

This is what is known as a LIVE disc as all the information is on the DVD and it does not require a hard drive. I made sure that I had the WiFi working so that the laptop could connect to the Internet.

Next I used the option to install the operating system onto the hard drive. Since I had a brand new hard drive I let the installer program use the whole disc but there are other options possible.

After several minutes, a power up, power down sequence and some downloads to update the release I had a brand new install. Great!

The standard install provides application software that can read CD/DVDs, a media player,  LibreOffice for spreadsheets/wordprocessing etc and Gimp for image processing.

Adding more software is mostly painless and of course since it open source it is also cost free. I'll talk about packages I use in another post.

Problems? It's taken a couple of different programs to be able to fully use the built in web cam and the SD card reader does not really work. Apart from that all good and I;m pretty sure the web cam thing is sorted.

So now I can record new audio and video programs for hypnotherapy and other self change work on my laptop. That's great for me.

Goodbye Windows....for good.


Thursday 6 June 2013

Stephen Fry attempted suicide....again.

This hit the news in the last couple of days.


Stephen Fry is well known for having had problems with depression and having attempted suicide in the past.

In a recent interview covered here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/celebrity-news-video/10102538/Stephen-Fry-opens-up-about-2012-suicide-attempt.html he talks about what happened to him in 2012.

The quote at the end stood out for me.
"You may say, how can anybody who's got it all be so stupid as to want to end it all? That's the point, there is no why – it's not the right question.
"There's no reason. If there were a reason for it, you could reason someone out of it."
Reasoning is not the answer. Underlying issues of an emotional nature will always overwhelm reason.

Monday 3 June 2013

Pictures from Cornwall

Sometimes life takes over and other things (like this blog) take a back seat. However I recently spent a couple days in North Cornwall to recharge my batteries and whilst there the weather was fabulous.

When the sun shines in Cornwall it can be a wonderful place to be.

Out came the camera and here are a few pictures from that visit.
The view from Tar Steps (Exmoor) looking downstream. Tar Steps is an ancient flat stone bridge http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarr_Steps

Looking towards Boscastle harbour (Cornwall). Amazing to think how different this scene was in 2004 when the great flood happened

Fishing boats in Port Issac Harbour (Cornwall). The entrance to the harbour is bounded by rocks on all sides and very narrow.

Fishing boat in Port Issac Harbour. The skipper was polishing the metalwork when I was there, clearly very proud of his boat. It gleamed in the sun.


Sunday 21 April 2013

Did you...

Did you come here expecting enlightenment?

Did you arrive through a chance Google search?

Is hypnosis an exciting topic for you?

Well here are some simple things that I believe to be true (your judgment may be different).
Nature shows us the simple beauty of a rainbow. No TV required

Today, remember that the TV is the master hypnotist and the people who run TV are perhaps well meaning, but they'll still lull you into their domain and once in, it's hard to escape. Your brain waves change, your mind becomes less critical and more accepting. You'll take on board almost anything that is said by the TV talking head.

Turn off the TV as often as you can (I know it will go on again)

The second most powerful hypnotist in the world is YOU.

You listen to your own inner voice more often and for greater lengths of time than anyone else does. If the words that you use to yourself are; you fool, you always get it wrong, my life sucks, I must be stupid, I'll never look as good as Beyonce/Brad Pitt,  etc. etc. then do not be surprised if the words become true.

You (at least partly) define the reality of your life. Change the way you talk to yourself and your world will change too; like magic.


Saturday 23 March 2013

A time of worry and concern

It's a strange time make no mistake.

Secret Courts
We now have the drive to secret courts in the UK. A court where you can be tried without knowing what you are being accused of or what the evidence is against you. If this was in China we would be berating the country but here? Most people barely seem aware of what is going on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21885811


The drive to war.
Our Government seem intent on furthering a war in which we have no interest. In this case it's in Syria (but Mali also applies). The UK has supplied training, bullet proof vests, armoured vehicles and now potentially guns too. Yet this is plainly a jihadist war; Muslin fundamentalists from around the world fighting to 'free' Syria. From what for whom are the questions that should be answered.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21763345


Freedom of the press ends.
Many newspapers did completely disgusting things by invading the privacy of people to write headlines. The Leveson enquiry has now turned into the Leveson stitch up. In a late night deal promoted by the group 'Hacked Off',   a new set of draconian press rules are to be put into place not with new laws but with Royal  Charter.

These new rules say that if you opt into the regulations any fines for press transgressions will be limited but if you don't opt in, they could bankrupt you. The trouble is no one seems to know if this applies to blogs or Facebook updates or Twitter messages or personal web sites. It's a bloody mess concocted in a hurry by people with lots of vested interest.

Again the UK has become a model for how not to do things in the free world; because we are no longer free. No more can we admonish other countries for their restrictive press laws when ours have become the most controlled of all.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21833462

Your money does not really belong to you.
I know you thought that once NI and PAYE had been deducted from your pay packet the rest of the cash (or virtual cash) was yours; but you were wrong.

As the people of Cyprus found out this week, a bank does not hold your deposit for safekeeping. No. Because of our fractional reserve banking system where money is lent and re-lent continuously there is only about 3-4% of real cash in a bank. The other 96-97% is out on loan or in bonds. You actually LOAN your money to a bank. Normally they promise to keep it safe, sometimes to pay interest on it. Now however it becomes clear that as your money was only LOANED to the bank, a Government or other organisation (ECB) can simply take what it wants, call it a tax and you lose 10% or more of your capital. Hard luck.

If they can do it in Cyprus (and Italy in 1992), they can do it anywhere. How is your pension pot looking? That may well be the next juicy morsel to be grabbed.

http://www.apfn.org/apfn/bank_loan.htm

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/21/cyprus-deposit-tax-eurogroup-chief_n_2922327.html?1363874423

It's snowing!
We are about to enter British Summertime and Easter is nearly here so of course we have.............snow drifts.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2013/mar/11/uk-snow-your-pictures

It sure is a time of concern.




Friday 8 February 2013

It was a busy morning so...

We sat back and ate carrot cake.

Sometimes it's nice to indulge.

Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone

Tuesday 1 January 2013

A look ahead into 2013


So the world did not end in December 2012. Maybe the Mayans just got bored with producing stone calendars. It has been a momentous year with many changes and events including the continued Arab Spring the Queen's Jubilee, the Olympics and Paralympics as well as a USA presidential election.

Technology - 3D Printing

3D printing will become much accessible to the home user and the small business. The effect of this will an increase in the number UK based companies producing their own metal and plastic parts. This in turn will provide a way to endlessly customise standard mass produced items but also allow new entrants into markets where innovation rather than cost is key.
The Wallace version of RepRap 3D printer. Designed for simplicity

The current low cost MakerBot and RepRap hobbyist products will be joined by more semi-professional 3D printers in the sub £5000 category; this in turn may well provide a basis for small service based bureau style start-ups who can become expert in helping people get started in this new area.

There are some interesting problems beginning to surface in this are. Who owns the rights to a particular design file for a product? If you can download a design as easily as an MP3 file then copyright lawyers will be big winners here. We have also seen groups attempting to design a 3D printable gun. Materials will limit its usefulness to just a few shots but how will gun control be managed in this context?

Technology - Robotics

We are still waiting for the universal robot helper as portrayed in Hollywood films, but each year we get a little closer. We have robot vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers and military bots to disable bombs. New materials technology that emulates the human tendons, better battery capacity and improved computer power will bring us closer to the kind of being seen in the film i.Robot.

i, Robot
Look out for many news stories in this area as demographics in Japan, Europe and the Russia (ageing populations and too few births) means that older citizens will need increasing amounts of help.

Economy

A long grinding, remorseless year is what I see. The UK (Government) is still spending more than it earns; in spite of Government spending cuts we are still increasing the total amount on the UK's credit card. This can only continue as long as the Government can borrow money at a relatively low interest rate. The rest of us are gradually paying down our debts and so the banks are making less money out of us.

The UK High Street

With the high street economy still suffering after 5 years of no growth or contraction there will be no joy in this area. Many of the lease agreements written 5 years ago were defined as upwards only rental. When high street sales are falling and other costs (including wages) are rising, there can only be one outcome. Recent victims can be seen here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13977255. Many more shop closures and more chains going into administration. Who looks shaky in 2013? HMV, WHSmith, electrical retailers and perhaps Marks & Spencer too.

I also foresee a move by some to change the rateable status of charity shops. Many now appear to have an unfair advantage over regular owner managed shops who pay normal rates.

The Web

This market space will continue to grow as more discretionary spending moves from the high street to the web. There will also be a high degree of 'churn' in this space with many new start-ups and many failures as new models are trialled. Money will be made...and some investors will lose their shirts.

Don't be surprised if some people start demanding new on-line taxes to compensate the Government for loss of Corporation tax and business rates.

Inflation

The Bank of England and the Government would have us believe that inflation is around 2.7%. I'm not sure what fudge factors are being applied to keep it that low because most people's experience is that inflation is nearer 10% than 3%. Fuel bills, road fuels, food items and insurance all seem to have gone up markedly. I see no end to this, inflation both real and reported will continue to rise.

The Euro

I have been amazed by the way the Euro has been kept going. The ever more ingenious methods adopted by the EU to keep the Euro alive have been amazing to watch. But, those paying the price are the ordinary people of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The vast majority of the 'funny' money provided to Greece is being spun around and channelled back to the banks in Germany, France and Italy to repay interest. In other words the Greek debt is getting bigger, the people are getting poorer and the economy is shrinking. There really is no way out of this terrible situation except through debt forgiveness and letting go of the Euro to allow Greece to get back to a sensible footing.

Spain may make it through whilst staying in the Euro, but the pain for ordinary people is already great and will become worse. For more information about the finance markets check out www.zerohedge.com.

Currency Wars

The Central Banks like the US Federal Reserve, The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all engaged in some form of money printing as a way of sustaining Government spending and to prop up their respective economies. All this money eventually ends up somewhere; for the last year this has been in the stock markets and in some property markets (look at how disconnected the London property market is from the rest of the UK with prices that are simply unsustainable anywhere else.)

But all this money comes with a price, interest must be paid and the debt is only serviceable whilst the interest rate is low enough. If the interest rates go up, the debt service burden on Government Bonds becomes impossible (as in Greece) and Government and or banking collapse will follow.

The only real alternative to this mess seems to be to allow inflation to deal with the problem. Keep kicking the can down the road and eventually the debt load won't seem so large. Maybe.

Real Wars

All too often currency wars and Government difficulties lead to real wars. Look how Argentina fell apart in the late 1970s. In a coup d'etat the Military came to power and eventually General Galtieri become supreme leader and invaded the Falkland Islands. In the last 12 months we have seen the so called 'Arab Spring' change the whole of North Africa but has it been for the better? I think the jury is still out on this.

Now we see a full blown civil war in Syria where foreign fighters and Syrians combined are being recognised by other countries (including the UK) as the legitimate Government of that country; even while Assad is still in power.

If Assad has looked at what happened in Iraq, Libya and Egypt he will do all he can to avoid being caught and I have a feeling he still has some last desperate cards to play. In the meanwhile, the mainstream TV channels almost completely ignore the unrest in some of the Gulf states. There will be more trouble here. Listen out for reports from Oman, Bahrain and Yemen in 2013. Africa will not be quiet either, Mali, Sudan, Somali and Libya will all hit the headlines.

Also look out for asymmetric conflicts like that in Afghanistan. Here a local well motivated fighting force has been able to keep the finest forces from the USA, UK and NATO tied up for years. In the process inflicting heavy casualties and great financial costs to all those involved.

Through the use of suicide bombers, rogue Policemen (and women), and low technology improvised explosive devices, the manpower and resources of the Western forces have been bogged down in a non-traditional, asymmetric, un-winable war. The Taliban know this and so do similar groups in Yemen.


The response?

The Western response to these wars is to increase the use of drone technology both in the air and on the ground. The Reaper drone delivers Hellfire missiles to enemy targets without being seen or heard and with almost no danger that its operation team will be hurt. It is war by remote control and its use will increase dramatically, just as it has over the last few years.

Mental Health

We have seen some dreadful stories in 2012 including a number where medication seems to have been part of the disaster. From school shootings in the USA, rising divorce rates and suicides in the UK, it's clear there are many deeply unhappy people who feel unable to go on.

Talk based therapy can do a lot to reduce the number of people stuck in depressive illness but it's expensive; highly variable in its outcome and difficult to administer. As a consequence we get an ever increasing use of drug based therapies that often inflict side effects (suicide for example) that are worse than the dis-ease being treated.

Unfortunately I do not see a big change happening here.  Drug companies will continue to market medications that have marginal effectiveness for the conditions they are being prescribed for. Family Doctors will continue to diagnose and prescribe these drugs and new mental health conditions will be described that many of us would consider normal human emotions.

DSM-5, the American Psychiatric Manual is nearing completion and with its launch several new conditions are specified. Previously grief was included as depression only if the feeling persisted for more than 2 months, now the drive is to reduce this to a few weeks. This of course will help drug sales but not help the person through the stages of their grief which in the ordinary course of events might take 6 months to 1 year.

Do you have a stroppy child? No actually you have a child with 'oppositional defiance disorder'; more drugs please! (Or maybe look at the type of diet the child is eating and the home environment before going down the drug path.)

Although this manual is drafted by Americans, the contents do filter into the UK healthcare arena and I fear for a generation of children who will be drugged from 5 years up because...they are acting like children. I hope I am so wrong on this.

Growth Areas

People to people lending (Peer to Peer) where the banks do not loan the money but would be investors get a better return than the current savings rates. Check http://uk.zopa.com/ (there are others).

Business' being started with crowdfunding. Check http://www.crowdfunding.com and http://www.kickstarter.com. It's been big in the USA for a while and now it's come to the UK. Small investors put a variable amount of money into a project and get some form of return when the project completes. That may be a film release or a technology product or a T-shirt. There are some amazing projects out there looking for funding.

The Black economy. If the Government of any country makes it too difficult to abide by the normal rules then people will just ignore them or find loop holes to avoid them (Starbucks tax anyone?). So I expect to see many more people simply ignoring the cascade of complex regulations from Government or the EU and just getting on with their own thing. Creating value and making a living. The Government will of course respond by drafting new rules and attempting to ban cash transactions above a certain value (as has been applied in Italy). Personally I hope they fail miserably in this little ruse.

What about you? What do you think?