Trends and forecasts for 2012

Trends and forecast for 2012

My own personal view on what may happen over the next 12 months. It looks bad but there are opportunities in the midst of the chaos ahead.

War, terror, chaos, Bank Holidays and energy shortages
As I contemplate the outlook for 2012 things look really rather grim. The background is tension over Syria and Iran where sabres are being rattled by the west in the belief, by some, that Iran is seeking to produce a nuclear weapon (although no hard evidence has so far been shown for this). Syria, a country with close links to Iran is near a civil war state.

These factors will unsettle the Middle East and with it the oil market.

In the USA new laws have been passed that permit the indefinite detention (without trial) of any person who is deemed to be an enemy of the state. This law appears to ride roughshod over the rights outlined in the USA Constitution. This is a troubling development from the nation that we used to view as the home of free.

In Europe the Euro is in deep trouble with any resolution to the problem seemingly being 'kicked down the road' as many times as possible. However unless there is a major restructuring of the Bank debts that have become Sovereign debts in the Euro zone there will be major problems in the first months of 2012.

Oil Shocks Unrest in oil producing regions is nothing new and the pressure from Israel and the USA on Iran seems likely to continue. There appears to be a stealth war already going on with US drones over flying Iran and mysterious explosions happening in or around Iranian research bases.

The recent rumour/threat that Iran was going to/had closed the Straits of Hormuz added 3% to the oil price in minutes. Can you imagine what would happen if this oil gateway was closed for a week? This story will run and run with the oil price climbing gradually higher in spite of the recession/depression in the USA and Europe.

Euro Zone breakup or breakdown?

The Euro currency in its current form can not continue indefinitely. Capital is leaving the Euro zone and only being replaced by 'funny money' from the European Central Bank. The can has been kicked down the road about as far as it can go although perhaps some new ingenious rescue mechanism will be devised.

I expect the Euro to collapse; either into two blocks (basically North and South) or more likely into the Euro zone (Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg; maybe some others) and all the rest.

Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy could create an new regional "South Euro" but more likely they will simply bring back their own currencies. What will happen to Euro based contracts will exercise corporate lawyers for the next few months.

The tricky thing is the timing. When will it happen? My guess is between 6 and 9 months into 2012. It will be chaos. On the upside; if this happens, holidays in Southern Europe will become cheaper!

What will happen to Ireland? 

It may run counter to every political bone in an Irish Republican's body, but perhaps they could look at joining Sterling again. There are so many constitutional issues with this that plotting the path seems difficult, but it would make a huge amount on sense given the trade between the UK and the Republic.

Will the EU survive

Probably. Perhaps in some more useful and much attenuated role.

In the UK

I expect major retailers to go to the wall in the first three months of 2012. Upward only rent demands, terrible trading conditions and the on-line market will see a number of big names either disappear or become amalgamated into larger trading groups.

Mental health issues of anxiety and depression will grow and become even more common. Sadly it's likely the suicide rate will increase too.

Good news stories: Insolvency practitioners will do well, on-line business will grow and new home delivery companies will come to market.

Crime

Will only go up with an increase in food theft rather than manufactured goods. This is simply a reflection of the impact that the austerity program is having. There is no simple way out of this. The Labour party believe that fewer shallower cuts are needed but in truth this will simply prolong the agony.

Good news stories: Private security firms will grow, new forms of manned and unmanned guarding will start to look effective and affordable on a neighbourhood by neighbourhood basis.

Government

To reduce costs the Government must get smaller. The Tory/Liberal alliance will tell you that it is getting smaller. But it's not small enough and likely never will be because they just can't resist meddling and imposing new rules. However job will move from local Government to private service companies and from central Government quangos to HMRC. Taxes MUST be collected!

Good news stories: It's the Government, there are no good news stories.

Employment/Unemployment

Sadly I can only see UK unemployment rising along with self-employment forced by circumstances. Where there are no jobs sometimes the only option left is to become self employed. Long term unemployment is still the nettle that central Government is frightened to grasp. In the 1930s depression unemployment rates hit 25%. If/when the Euro goes bang it's possible we might see rates near this again. It seems obvious to me that the black economy will thrive in this type of setting.

Bank Holidays

The meaning of Bank Holiday is that the bank is closed. If things get very tight in the Euro zone and possibly even in the UK, the Governments may be tempted to impose a Bank Holiday where a levy is taken directly from every bank account in the name of  "The Greater Good". During this Bank Holiday access to cash would be severely restricted. This has happened before (in Italy I believe) and could be as high as 1% of the amount in an account. What would that do to your savings plan?

Of course they will not announce this in advance or you may be tempted to put your cash under the mattress and that would never do. The beast (Government and Banks) must be fed!

Energy

In the UK our energy supply is hanging on by a thread. Ageing Nuclear reactors are being kept going passed their design life to cover an energy gap that will only get bigger as the UK population grows. The Greens fascination with wind turbines will continue in-spite of the experiences in the USA where many multi-turbine installations have been left to rot as the feed-in tariffs change and make maintenance and updating unaffordable. 

In the short term Gas Turbine power stations can deal with the issues but only for as long as we have a ready supply of natural gas. With many supplies coming from long and vulnerable pipelines it would be dangerous to rely on these alone. Solar power can only really be a bit part player in the UK, especially since most installations do not include battery back-up storage.

The reality is that only more nuclear infrastructure will deliver the power we crave but it takes a decade or more to bring a new nuclear station on-stream. A personal generator in the garage may be the most effective way to beat rolling black-outs that seems certain in the years ahead.

Gas Exploration

Shale gas may be the way ahead but the environmental costs seen in the USA (poisoned drinking water etc.) may stop or slow its progress in the UK. However perhaps our deep water exploration teams will find more oil and gas opportunities in the western approaches or off the North West coast of Scotland. Let's hope so.

Peoples

Immigration is nothing new for Europe and nor is emigration. I expect to see more of both in 2012. There signs already that many of Europe's talented youth are going to seek new opportunities abroad. For the Portuguese, Angola and Brazil are beacons of hope. Likewise for the Spanish, Latin America offers jobs and a future. For the Irish and the Brits, Canada, Australia and New Zealand look enticing when seen from the UK.

But Europe will also see more immigration from the Arab countries as turmoil continues in North Africa and now Syria. Add in people from Afghanistan and Somalia and one can begin to see a real change in how Europe will look in coming decades.

The Rise of Turkey

A member of NATO and once a strong candidate to join the EU, now Turkey looks set to become a regional powerhouse of influence and control. They will have lots to say about Syria, Iran and Israel. Muscles will be flexed.

It seems that 2012 will be a year of being defensive, looking after one's own, protecting what you have before worrying about what you want next. The TV will continue to produce more escapist shows (Strictly Come Dancing, X-Factor, Britain's Got Talent etc.) to provide relief from the gloom of real life.

People will still be seduced by technological toys like the iPhone/iPad. They will simply add the payment to their monthly bills. Subscription TV will become more popular as discretionary spending moves from going out to the pub/restaurant to staying at home with a bottle of wine/beer.

Most things done by the Government will have little or no impact, the best that one can hope for is that they get out of the way so that Micro and small business can grow into medium sized ventures and so create new jobs.

Batten down the hatches, it's a choppy sea we are set to navigate in 2012.

How well did my trends forecast for 2011 go?

Here are the forecasts that I posted at this time last year; some of them seem to have been right on the money.

I gazed deeply into the crystal ball and as the mists cleared here is what I saw: The Trends for 2011
Actually that a lot of old waffle but I do think we'll see a lot of this happen. I may not be a forecaster like Gerald Celente, but the markers for these trends are already in place.

1) An economy that fails to grow as quickly as forecast but still with inflation pushing up prices. The 1970s word Stagflation will become well known again.
I think this one was pretty much bang on.

2) The slow motion implosion of the Eurozone. The smaller countries overwhelmed with Bank debt will need further support for their still increasing debts. A two speed Eurozone may be imposed as the Germans tire of being the generous uncle who bails the smaller countries out. Debt will have to be restructured either willingly by changing the Euro rules or unwillingly by the collapse of the Euro.
Ongoing and pretty accurate but still with a few months to run.

3) Rising unemployment in the UK coupled with rising prices and stagnant wages will lead to more crime and more civil unrest. The rise in crime will lead to calls for "something to be done" and so more draconian police powers will be demanded and put in place.
I think with this one, we see and experience the crime now and are just starting to see the "something must be done stage".

4) Local taxes of all kinds will rise. Since the Council tax itself is fixed, car parking, planning and other usage based charges will rise by 20-50% as a ways of generating more income for the councils.
Again bang on the money with new charges and parking meters etc being pushed on us all the time.

5) Local based business with low or no overheads will survive and may even prosper in the confusion of the high street. Expect to see one or more mid-range high street brands collapse. Online sales of commodity items will close those stores with no special USP.
Ongoing even now as we spend for Christmas, many of the retailers will not see much past the second week of January.

6) Large scale volume manufacturing for many items will continue to move east. Either to Eastern Europe or to China where labour costs (even after recent Chinese wage inflation) are still much lower than in Northern Europe. Watch for more of European manufacturing to be done in North Africa as well. Special trade deals will make it easy import products from this region without duties.
So the move to North Africa did not happen (yet) because they had wars and uprisings to get out of the way. Watch this space. Just possibly though some companies are beginning to see that China manufacture is not the only answer.

7) Some politicians and media people will start to ask if the Internet needs more regulation. There will be calls for a blogging licence and additional regulation to close down 'alternative' news sources.
Bloggers have been arrested, WikiLeaks has been attacked this will continue as long as citizen journalism does the job of holding people to account that used to be done by the mainstream press. I expect much more trouble in this area in 2012.

8) Government budgets will attempt to pull more cash from the individual through new taxes, not raising allowances and charging for services that used to be free. This may be dressed up in the language of sustainability/green taxes or environmental protection. The money will actually be used to fund the Government deficit, bank debts and to cover part of the fallout of the Eurozone implosion.
Again I was bang on the money with this one. Check your wallet and see if you have more or less net income this year compared to last.

9) More people will attempt to follow the 'Good Life' by taking up smallholdings and raising their own animals. Many will revert back to an urban life because of the increasingly complex rules and regulations surrounding farming and animal keeping.
Not a trend that has really got going yet. We have seen more people taking up allotments and doing more cooking at home but not yet the large scale adoption of the 'Tom & Barbara' approach.

10) GM foods will be presented as the way to deal with the increased food prices. Some will resist this but crops will be planted and local organic production will be blighted by cross contamination of land and produce.
Now we have GM moths being released into the wild and further 'trial' of new GM crops. This is still a troubling area and as these crops hybridise with non-GN varients there will be law suits a plenty from the big AgriChemical companies.

12) Broadcast TV will become increasingly fractured and of poorer quality as more channels are created. The increase in channels will decrease the advertising revenue available per channel and so expect to see more re-runs of old shows and imports of low grade shows from around the English speaking world.
Broadcast TV may seem bad (and it often is) but having seen what they have in the USA during a visit earlier this year there is still room for standards to fall (unfortunately). It's an ongoing train wreck and even the BBC has started to realise that its licence fee is not a sacred right.

13) One from left field; there will be calls for SSRI anti-depressants to come off prescription, so that they can be used more widely. This will be in response to a huge increase in those diagnosed with some form of depression as a consequence of other major changes outlined above.


As far as I'm aware there has been no move in this direction although the numbers of SSRI anti-depressants prescribed each year is truly frightening.


So now I'll work on my trends for 2012. Let's see just what the next 12 months may bring us.

Give money to charity or else go to jail

This post was prompted by an article on the Daily Mail web site that indicated there are plans afoot to commit the Government to paying 0.7% of GDP into foreign aid. Presumably, if it breaks this new law all the Cabinet Ministers will also send themselves to prison.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2069343/Now-law-foreign-aid-Ministers-want-commit-Britain-billions-handouts.html

State enforced giving by extraction of earning under threat of legal sanctions to send cash to countries rich enough to have atom bombs and space programs? No thank you.

This whilst our Government borrows that money by promising that we the UK population will pay it back with interest under force of law and the threat of jail. This approach is simply evil. If you wish to donate from your net pay then please do so. I would rather choose which charities to donate my meager income to.

On the road again

Driving west on the A303 at this time of here you can see some terrific evening skies. Here is a recent one.

A303 West - Wiltshire

Setting Sun

I haven't posted here for a while. I've been distracted by the ongoing train wreck of our economy and been waiting for the moment when the metal stops sliding on the rails and finally comes to rest. With so much mass and momentum behind it that may be a ways off yet.

To reset my head, I like to go to the coast and generally I'll have the camera with me. I thought I'd share a couple of pictures with from last Sunday.

Almost sunset - West Bay Dorset

Setting Sun - West Bay Dorset

Hope you like the pictures

The USA; reflections on my recent trip

Having returned to the UK and adjusted to the time zone change I've been reflecting on what I found there.

I was amazed by the the lack of a world view on the TV programmes; you would never know that a world outside of the USA existed. As to the TV programmes, it was impossible to watch them, adverts every 4 minutes or so killed the flow of any dramatic script.

I realised that whilst I was there, I never saw a supermarket except the ubiquitous 7-11. If you wanted to buy groceries where would you go? I'm sure there must have been a Wal-Mart or similar around but I just did not see them in spite of travelling around in a car quite a bit. Perhaps we should be more thankful for Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda and the rest.

Without NFL and Baseball I have no idea how the TV schedules would be filled, they would need to import some documentaries from elsewhere in the world.

New Hampshire and Massachusetts were lovely places to visit and I can imagine there is much more to see than I managed in the short time I was there.

I was still glad to get home though.

I've been away...

Visiting the gold old US of A.

It's been an interesting experience and it's the first time I've been to the East coast (rather than  the west coast).

Observations so far?

USA immigration is still a grim experience now with the added pain of having your finger prints scanned (to be shared with who knows what organisations).

Most people (not including immigration unfortunately) seem genuinely very nice and friendly.

Even in a relatively prosperous city like Boston, there are lots of rough-sleepers, people begging and many closed shops. (It's down to the area of the city, it does vary)

The weather has been unseasonably warm and the trees in New Hampshire have yet to turn to their glorious range of autumn colours.

The TV news in the USA is mostly very poor. Sport is huge but coverage of foreign events or even major domestic issues is almost non-existent.

Most food portions in cafes or restaurants are still way too big for sensible eating.

Service is really not as good as it's cracked up to be, even Americans I have spoken to, think standards have slipped in the last 10 years.

We did ask a police man for directions and he told us what we needed to know. So there are some good ones out there.

Still a few days to go but so far it's been a good trip

Does newer = better

Progress...
It's supposed to always be useful and good; a marker of a developing civilisation.

Progress = Good

Well I wonder if it is really.

Let's look at some mundane example of progress;

Windows 7 'Ribbon' interface, supposedly a vast improvement in ease of use over those old clunky drop down menus from XP, 2000 or even further back in Windows history. Except that even after 6 months of using the interface I still find myself hunting for the right function in Office 10. It's an intuitive use fail.

State education. We used to have a system that made a judgement call about those children more academically gifted and those with more physical rather than intellectual skills. This seemed to work relatively well (obvious errors occur in any system). Some went to University to get degrees in English or the sciences other went to colleges to work on HTEC, BTEC or similar qualifications in anything from mechanical engineering to food preparation.

Now instead of that, we have a state school system where many at 11 years old are unable to read and write but still expect to go to University.

DAB radio. The promise was "a brilliant way to give us more radio stations on the dial with CD quality sound." The fact is, a system that frequently fails to deliver any sound at all and is often much worse than the old FM transmitters it is supposed to replace.

Quit smoking drugs. Hailed as the best way for smokers to stop the habit, they often cause sleepless nights, altered though patterns mood swings and even suicidal thoughts.

In each case above, a worthwhile product or system has 'progressed' to a newer allegedly better way of doing things that is often worse than what went before. Yet each has been promoted as progress.

It's useful to ask who was doing the promotion, because then it is easier to understand why we are so often asked to swallow a lie about the supposed benefits of progress.

Microsoft needs to sell operating systems, this happens most often when you buy a new PC. Yes the new PC will have a faster clock rate and shinier applications but that won't change how fast you type or whether you can watch a video at double speed. An old PC can do these tasks very well but then of course you would not need a new operating system.

State education has become a self serving monster that is at least as much interested in its own status as it is the product it produces. On almost any measure one uses, it fails to deliver for many of the young people who are pushed through the system. If it is so progressive and wonderful why do we have any illiterate 16 year olds?

DAB radio transmits more channels in a narrower spectrum than FM, but if only the Government could switch of the FM stations, they could auction off the spectrum and generate barrow loads of cash for themselves and the 'advisors' who reap the real money rewards.

Quit smoking drugs mostly fail to deliver on their promise. However if you medicalise a condition, a trusted member of the community (your Doctor) will help the drug companies to get the Government to pay for your 'illness'. Hypnosis, and other counselling methods have no side effect and work more effectively. They are not however promoted by a drug company.

So before you say that progress is always good (sometimes it really is good) I ask you to think about where the money is going and then realise who is really benefiting from this so called progress.

People say sheep are stupid...

But have you ever seen an obese sheep?

They eat when hungry, sleep when tired and drink when thirsty.

If we did the same their would be no obesity in the western world.
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device

How ever dark it seems the sun will break through

In the depths of despair it can seem as if the sun will never shine again...but it will.
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Apologies for the lack of posts, I'm on holiday

We all need a break to recharge sometimes and I'm taking one right now.

Normal service will be resumed next week.

Change the direction of your thinking for better results

Sometimes I need to flow chart a process. I usually use a piece of Microsoft software called Visio. It allows you to drag and drop decision boxes and process steps, connect them with dynamic arrow style connectors and you finish up with a nice flow chart. Start at the top of the page and work your way down, boxes, loops, decisions, connectors; job done.

But not yesterday.

I started a flow chart three times following the pattern, each time I struggled to get the logic right. The chart seemed over complex and just plain looked wrong. Frustration was the outcome.

I sat down again with pen and paper and instead of working from top to bottom of the page, I turned the paper landscape style and worked left to right. Aha! It works! Within 10 minutes I had simplified and refined the chart. I then used this as the model for a computer generated one.

And I began to wonder why it had been so much easier to work from left to right rather than from top to bottom.

In flow chart terms the direction made no difference but it really was so much easier that I wondered why this might be.

Perhaps it is because we read from left to right but I wonder if our notion of a timeline has something to do with this too. Timeline is an NLP term and it can be used therapeutically to shift difficult problems or gain a different perspective on them.

Try an experiment with me. Close your eyes and imagine or remember a happy scene from some time in your far past. Still with your eyes closed point to that event in space where you imagine it to be. Is is to your left or right? Is it in front of you or behind you? Is it above or below your eyeline?

Remember that place. Now think about an event that will be in your future. It could be your retirement, Christmas or something else of significance. Point to where that event is in space just like before.

Now compare those two locations; many people will have an imaginary timeline between those two events that runs from left to right ie the older event to your left, the newer to your right. Relatively fewer people will have the timeline running from right to left and fewer yet (in my experience) will have the past event behind them and the future event directly ahead of them.

My time line runs left to right, so in a process it would be natural for me to think, left to right. Perhaps this explains why it was so much easier for me to get some clarity on my flowchart when I literally changed the direction of my thinking.

Try it and see if it can help you too.

A dying fathers rules for a life of fulfilment

You'll find the full article here and it is a tragedy, one that is so common that we almost forget about how tragic it is.

A father is diagnosed with cancer and then spends the last few weeks of his life putting his affairs in order and giving his family the benefit of all he has learnt and wants to pass on to his children.

After his death his wife found a document on his laptop called Rules for finding fulfilment.

Here are his rules.

Be courteous, be punctual, always say please and thank you, and be sure to hold your knife and fork properly. Others take their cue on how to treat you from your manners.


Be kind, considerate and compassionate when others are in trouble, even if you have problems of your own. Others will admire your selflessness and will help you in due course.


Show moral courage. Do what is right, even if that makes you unpopular. I always thought it important to be able to look at myself in the shaving mirror every morning and not feel guilt or remorse. I depart this world with a pretty clear conscience.


Show humility. Stand your ground but pause to reflect on what the other side are saying, and back off when you know you are wrong. Never worry about losing face. That only happens when you are pig-headed.


Learn from your mistakes. You will make plenty so use them as a learning tool. If you keep making the same mistake or run into a problem, you’re doing something wrong.


Avoid disparaging someone to a third party; it is only you who will look bad. If you have a problem with someone, tell them face to face.


Hold fire! If someone crosses you, don’t react immediately. Once you say something it can never be taken back, and most people deserve a second chance.


Have fun. If this involves taking risks, so be it. If you get caught, hold your hands up.
Give to charity and help those who are less fortunate than yourselves: it’s easy and so rewarding.


Always look on the upside! The glass is half full, never half empty. Every adversity has a silver lining if you seek it out.


Make it your instinct always to say ‘yes’. Look for reasons to do something, not reasons to say no. Your friends will cherish you for that.


Be canny: you will get more of what you want if you can give someone more of what they desire. Compromise can be king.


Always accept a party invitation. You may not want to go, but they want you there. Show them courtesy and respect.


Never ever let a friend down. I would bury bodies for my friends, if they asked me to ...which is why I have chosen them carefully.


Always tip for good service. It shows respect. But never reward poor service. Poor service is insulting.


Always treat those you meet as your social equal, whether they are above or below your station in life. For those above you, show due deference, but don’t be a sycophant.


Always respect age, as age equals wisdom.


Be prepared to put the interests of your sibling first.


Be proud of who you are and where you come from, but open your mind to other cultures and languages. When you begin to travel (as I hope you will), you’ll learn that your place in the world is both vital and insignificant. Don’t get too big for your breeches.


Be ambitious, but not nakedly so. Be prepared to back your assertions with craftsmanship and hard work.


Live every day to its full: do something that makes you smile or laugh, and avoid procrastination.


Give of your best at school. Some teachers forget that pupils need incentives. So if your teacher doesn’t give you one, devise your own.


Always pay the most you can afford. Never skimp on hotels, clothing, shoes, make-up or jewellery. But always look for a deal. You get what you pay for.


Never give up! My two little soldiers have no dad, but you are brave, big-hearted, fit and strong. You are also loved by an immensely kind and supportive team of family and friends. You make your own good fortune, my children, so battle on.


Never feel sorry for yourself, or at least don’t do it for long. Crying doesn’t make things better.


Look after your body and it will look after you.


Learn a language, or at least try. Never engage a person abroad in conversation without first greeting them in their own language; by all means ask if they speak English!


And finally, cherish your mother, and take very good care of her.
I love you both with all my heart.
Daddy x


I think there is something here that everyone take take positive guidance from. I know I have.

With all the bad news, it's easy to forget...

With all the bad news around at the moment from phone hacking, to the collapse of the Euro, from rising fuel bills to falling wages it's easy to forget the good things that are happening.

Remind yourself that the sun WILL rise tomorrow, that even  now apples are ripening in orchards, that babies are being born who are untainted by the troubles of the world.

Remember that the sun will shine and the rail will fall regardless of what happens to stock markets or pension plans and even in the depths of the longest and deepest economic depression for 60 years, people are still donating time, money and goods to charities.

It's easy to fall into a melancholic slump from time to time. it happens to me too, but when you get away from the man-made problems you can see there are so many good things that happen too.

Take a moment to today to find just one thing to enjoy and be thankful for. Honestly, it will help you feel better about the negatives and help you put them in their place.

A phobia is not always a phobia

When a little girl developed a phobia of going to the playground her mum was obviously concerned.

But the crying and the fear was not a phobia at all; it was an undiagnosed brain tumour. This was only realised when the little girl Poppy started bumping into doorways and falling over.

This is as much a lesson for therapists as anyone else. Are you really working on the root cause of a client's issue or could there be a medical angle that somehow got missed?

Read the full story on the Daily Mail web site here.

There are times when I need to remind myself...

I can't change everything.

I believe in personal empowerment and getting involved, but there are times when I need to remind myself that that there are some things I cannot impact in a meaningful way and I should let go.

I say should, because the letting go is not always easy.

This morning as I looked at the web sites around the world that help me know what the news is, I learnt that once again the UK (with France and the USA) has bombed Libya.

The NATO force has flown around 10,000 sorties with about 6000 of these being bombing missions. Over 1100 civilians, men, women and children have been killed by NATO and yet supposedly this adventure is to save the people of Libya from a tyrant.

Now we learn that another four aircraft will be brought into the battle.

A non-aggression pact has been ripped up by Italy and as a consequence a gas pipeline from Libya to Italy will not be pumping gas needed by industry and householders in Italy.

Barely  more than one year ago, Libyan Government services were being trained by British specialists. Britain sold arms and ammunition to Libya following Tony Blair's meeting with Ghaddafi in the desert, how things change.

As much as I support British forces, I can't support what is going on and worse yet, the taxes that I pay make me partly responsible for the carnage.

I have no way to change this situation.

All I can do is make my feelings known and let go. That letting go is not easy when we as a nation seem to have got this situation so badly wrong.

This will lift the spirit

Love this! Even though my wife says it tastes of old lady bath water. (How on earth would she know?)
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It's nice to get a new client by referall

Sometimes, out of the blue I'll get a phone call from someone who has been referred to me by a former client. It always feels nice when this happens, a confirmation that one's work has had lasting value.

In this case a young man in his teens is having some difficulties in adjusting to becoming a young adult. Whilst his parents are having some trouble adjusting to the fact that they now have a young man in the house, not just a boy.

Cue, confrontation!

But this is a natural situation. Perhaps if I say it like this it will become clearer; the old lion has been undisputed king of the pride for a very long time. His lioness has had cubs, one boy one girl, who loved to play in the protective shadow of the lion.

Male Lion - waiting for the challenge

But as the lion cubs grow, they must start to take on new roles and the boy lion must begin to ready himself for the life beyond the family pride. So he'll start to test the authority of the old lion and of course he must be put back in his place (at least for a while) until he is ready to form his own pride or at least start looking to do so.

You cannot have two dominant male lions in a pride. You cannot have two dominant men in a home, one has to go. In our culture, as with the lions, it is the younger lion that must go and make his own way.

When we see a nature documentary about this on the television it is so clear and obvious what is happening but often people are slower to recognise these changes that are simply part of growing up.

When you begin to understand the process it makes it much easier to deal with. The confrontation is likely to be temporary although temporary might still mean 2, 3 or even 4 years of friction.

It will pass and in most cases (but not all) be replaced with something nearer to adult friendship.

Of course you may still have a young male lion rampaging in the home; it's always going to be a challenge!

A quick thought

Why are people scared of hypnosis?

Because they know it works and are scared of what the hypnotist/hypnotherapist might do to them.

So doesn't it make most sense to check out the hypno person first? Most of us are happy to talk on the phone or face to face before working together.

Just a thought.

Quit smoking with Champix or hypnosis

The quit smoking drug Champix (known as Chantix in the USA) is again in the news after studies indicate that it can actually increase the risk of heart problems when compared to patients who took a dummy pill.

According to the Daily Mail "Champix, which is also known as varenicline, has previously been linked to psychiatric problems, including 37 suicides in the UK and hundreds of cases of suicidal thoughts."

I have seen both positive and negative results from people who have used Champix to stop smoking. It seems to be one way in which smokers who prefer not to take a hypnosis type approach can make the change. It's just that before one takes the drug there seems to be no way to predict what the side effects might be.

Stopping smoking with hypnosis is still the most effective way to become a non-smoker. I believe that I achieve 70-80 % success rates using my 2 sessions, of 2 hours, 1 weeks apart approach.

The drug option can seem like the easy way to make the change; no effort, no time taken, just a pill to swallow.  But I honestly believe that becoming a non-smoker is worth putting time effort and money into.

By the way, if you do want to use my services, then the charge is £195 and about four hours of your time. It's worth though, you'll probably gain 14 years of a extra healthy life. What's that worth to you?

Sometimes your environment is the best (or worst) medicine

I was out early this morning and had to be in Lyme Regis, which is a small town on the Dorset coast. (Its famous Cobb harbour wall was the setting for a scene in the film The French Lieutenant's Woman )

This morning the tide was in, the sea was as calm as a lake, the sun was shining but still low in the sky and the place looked wonderful.

I only had time to take a couple of pictures and they are hardly of National Geographic quality but I thought you might like to see them.

This scene lifted my heart for a while and perhaps it can do the same for you. Nature truly can be a wonderful medicine.

Why complaining is good

The Australians call us (the British)  whinging Poms and perhaps they have a point. You'll hear plenty of people moaning about almost any topic you care to mention, on any day of the week.

However, I'd like you to consider that complaining and whinging may be a good thing......if you follow through and do it the right way. This is not a "how to" piece on getting the best from your local store when you go and complain about some shoddy goods, no, it's a bit deeper than that.

If you can complain about something, anything, then it means that you you are in some way comparing the position you find yourself in with some other better version.

Let me explain, you don't complain about gravity, gravity just is. Your pen rolling off the desk and dropping on the floor may be annoying, but you still don't complain about gravity. In fact, at the weekend you choose to play with gravity, when you play golf or football. You use it just as it is, there is no point complaining about it, as there is no gravity free alternative.

Contrast this with a golf ball that splits the first time you hit it. You paid good money for the ball and yet it seems that it must be defective to split after being hit just the one time. You probably have a model in mind of how many golf games or holes a ball should be good for and when you compare that with what you have, you complain.

The essence of the complaint, is the difference between your expectation of the product or service and what actually is delivered. But knowing what that difference is gives us the ability to look at ways of bridging the gap.

We can look at better plastics to cover the golf ball, we can suggest to the product manufacturer, ways in which their product can be improved. Knowing that there is a difference between our expectations and our current outcome provides the clues that can drive positive change.

So as you moan or complain today, reflect on how that difference could be bridged and then set about doing it.

Interesting stories in the press

I thought you might find these pieces interesting:


Could the right to die become seen as an obligation to die?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthadvice/jameslefanu/8582032/James-LeFanu-Doctors-diary.html



Formaldehyde now officially listed as cancer-causing chemical - what should you avoid?

http://www.naturalnews.com/032765_formaldehyde_carcinogenic.html

Hypnosis can help with breast and thyroid surgery
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/744526

I'm entitled, You Should, I demand, It's not fair

I wonder what happened. I wonder how it happened. When did people begin to decide that the Government / Council / Power that be / had ultimate responsibility for their life?

What do I mean?

It seems that many people now expect that the 'Government' should become a kind of surrogate parent providing all that is required for a full and fulfilling life. Money, housing, opportunity even food, clothing and happines; all should be entitled as a right to have these things and if a person can't get them for themselves, the Government should provide.

Yet, these people (and I meet many), consider themselves to be adult, consider that they are in charge of their life, consider that intrusion into how they live their life is unwarranted.

So to an outside viewer they might appear to be more like a petulant teenager than an adult accepting responsibility for their own actions. They ask for lots, give little and accept little responsibility for the outcome of their actions. This sounds more like a 14 year child testing the boundries of childish demands with the desires of a young adult.

Transactional Analysis provides a useful model for this. If one person adopts the child like postion of being demanding, needing constant attention and not able to or unwilling to accept responsibility, the other party in the relationship is almost forced into the position of being the parental provider. (An alternative would have an adult to adult discussion about who can provide help in times of difficulty and who has responsibility for what.)

You can find lots more about Eric Bearne (who first came up with this idea) and Transactional Analysis here: http://www.ericberne.com/transactional_analysis_description.htm

So here is your thought for the day; are you or someone you know demanding that others provide? Are you or someone you know not taking responsibility for what happens in life?

If that is the case, you or they have given someone else (or some organisation) a veto over your happiness and wellbeing. If that organisation is a council or Government what do you suppose is the likelihood of them caring about you deeply enough to consider your happiness. Hint, it's close to zero.

So this morning, today, I urge you to take the controls of your life. To take responsibility for your actions, to become the adult in the transactional analysis diagram, to decide that no one will have a veto on your potential for happiness.

It will not be easy, you will slip and fall but the great advantage is that when you take back control and responsibility for your life, you will find the ability and resources that you need. That may be charity, friendship, courage, drive or determination but the pay-off is HUGE.

Will you do it?

McDonalds & The Cloud WiFi access

An interesting response when I went to take a look at David Icke's web site using the WiFi at a McDonalds in Derby.

Access Denied (content_filter_denied)
Your request was denied because of its content categorization: "Alternative Spirituality/Belief;Newsgroups/Forums"
For assistance, contact your network support team.

It seems that an alternative view of life is so dangerous that it must be blocked.
Interesting.

Hypnosis can aid surgery & speed recovery

James Braid, surgeon
 and hypnotist

Of course hypnosis has been used as a surgical aid since the mid 19th century and was pioneered by people like the Scots surgeon James Braid. The advent of modern anaesthetics generally put a stop to most hypnosis in a surgical setting, anaesthesia was generally much faster to deliver than hypnosis. Another famous Scot who used mesmerism (after Anton Mesmer) was James Esdaile. He was a surgeon working in India and used  hypnosis to provide pain relief (analgesia) for his Indian patients. Esdaile encountered many problems when attempting to use his techniques on the European patients though; prejudice meant many felt the technique was only suitable for the lower Indian orders.


Choloroform for most patients provided the next step forward in pain control and hypnosis was for the most part pushed to the margins. However every few years a news story arises as it does today of hypnosis being used successfully in a surgical setting. The Daily Mail today has a story about surgeons in Belgium using the technique in thyroid and breast cancer operations to good effect. The complete story is here.


I think Braid would be pleased that his work still had value 150 years after his death.

I listened to a hypnosis CD today

I listened to a hypnosis CD today (not one of mine) to relax and recharge the batteries.

Apparently the relaxation side went a bit far, my relaxed state was disturbed by a snorey snort.  It was me...

Oh dear.

Some picture to brighten your day

Some close up pictures taken over the weekend for no better reason than they look good.

Chive Flower

Another Chive Flower

Parsley

Mint

Tricky words - part 2

Can you remember back as far as your early school days? Can you recall a teacher telling you to 'try' and form that letter or do that sum. This blog post is about that tricky word 'try'.

Allow me to create a scene for you; it's a work environment, an office that could be almost anywhere. There are bosses and supervisors a hierarchy common to companies all over the world.

In this scenario a supervisor walks up to Bill, a long time serving office worker and says "Bill I'd look you to do the consolidated shipping report this week."

Bill knows that this is the job everyone in the office hates. The consolidated shipping reported is pulled from multiple paper systems, it is prone to errors and never easy to do. Bill is now wary of what's coming next.

The Supervisor says "Bill, I have great faith in your skills and I'd like you to have that report completed by 9am tomorrow".

Bill thinks "Great! A compliment about my skills followed by an impossible deadline. Just great!"

But what Bill says is something different "Harry, you know that report is a nightmare to prepare. " Bill is setting up the 'try' defence he will use tomorrow when the report is not done. Bill continues "I'll TRY and get it done by 9am."

Harry the Supervisor is satisfied that he has given charge of the task to Bill.

The truth is at this point Bill has no intention of getting the report done by 9am and has already provided a reason ("nightmare to prepare") why it won't be done.

Sure enough the following day when Harry the Supervisor goes to Bill at 9am expecting the report to be finished, Bill is only half way through.

Harry is unhappy about the lack of progress but he has to deal with Bill's response "Hey, I said I'd TRY and get it done. Not that I would guarantee it!"

That type of situation gets played out in offices across the world every day.There are several dynamics in there but the part I would like to focus on is the word TRY.

Try carries with it an implicit notion of failure. If I say I'll TRY to do something then there is a good probability that I won't do it. When we use the try, it frequently  implies that the task WILL fail.

Can you see how poor a word choice this is in a teaching context.

Can you begin to understand that in the context of the pep talks that you give yourself, the word try sets you up for a failure every single time.

So with that in mind the next time you feel tempted to use the word try, substitute a different word or phrase.

Some alternatives:
I will do that!
I won't do that!
I'll do it but I'm not sure how well it will turn out
I'll do it but I'll need an extra day(s) to get it to you

Stop trying simply do or don't do  In the words of Yoda from Star Wars "Do or do not there is no try"

Another book for your collection if you are getting into Hypnotherapy

This book is called The Art Of Hypnotherapy by C.Roy Hunter.

It's full of practical therapy examples rather than being a manual on how to hypnotise.

It covers techniques like parts therapy and the use of regression. There is a whole chapter on motivation mapping that can potentially provide a framework for the therapy.

Well worth having on a hypnotherapist's book shelf.
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Flowers at Dillington

I saw these flowers in the early morning sunshine at Dillington House, Ilminster, Somerset and thought they deserved a picture.


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Looking after the kids

This swan is walking her cygnets back to the river in the town centre of Marlborough.

She was not allowing anyone to get in their way! Picture taken 6th June 2011.
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Dangerous words-Part 1-Should

My clients often come to me unaware of the words they use that constrain their thoughts and so their actions.

A quick example; how often have you said to yourself "I should do this" or "I should stop doing that"?
If you are like many people I meet, you say something like this quite often.

But that "should" often implies two things
1) I should do it but I'm not going to. (Or I can't)
2) I should do it according to whom?

In the first example a should often indicates that we believe it would be useful to do something but we resist (for whatever reason) and that sets up an internal conflict where neither position is resolved.

In the second example it can be useful to ask "I should according to whose rules?"

Often when a person uses 'should', their actions are being driven by an outside influence, a previous teaching or a moral standard. This may be something we picked up as children and had drilled into us or it may be something that we collected on our journey through adulthood. Do those things still apply today?

So if today you find yourself saying "should", just stop. Ask yourself "I should according to whose rules?". If you don't value that person or organisation why should you?

Secondly, it is much more useful to decide to do something or not do something rather than saying I should do it.

Think about the situation where you used the word should and decide whether you will or won't do the thing. It's ok to decide that you'll do it, but you don't know how. Or to say I'll do it when "this happens"; then get on  with the rest of the day.

Should is a slippery little word and when you begin to look at how you use it, you may just begin to see that it indicates areas of your life where other people or social expectations conflict with your own values.

When you avoid the word, should, you'll avoid those inner conflicts.

By the way, if you find yourself saying "you should" to someone else, ask yourself why should they? Why should they run your agenda or follow your ideas. That should word can be a bit of a bully. Watch out for it.

Regrets of the dying-what they would have done differently and what you can do now

We grow like flowers but are cut down by age

Life is short. Often we have no idea how short.

Few of us can know when our time is up and so it might make sense to ask those who know they are near death to reflect on the decisions they made, or did not make in life.

An entry on the blog site Inspiration and Chai is valuable in its clarity and simplicity.

In essence it says work less, value friends, be happy, speak your mind, do what you want, not what others expect and express your feelings more.

Nothing unexpected or unusual then but perhaps because we think we know these things we feel free to ignore them; rather as if they belong to someone else.

It's a good read to begin your day with. Take a look and then think about what you do. I've already started thinking about my own life.

Rotten Nasty Cold

I have a rotten nasty cold. My voice sounds as if I have recently gargled with razor blades.

In short if you are after hypnotherapy in the next couple of days you'd be best to visit here www.gift4life.com.

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Self hypnosis can get you into a heap of trouble

I saw a client recently; a person in their late 20s with big self esteem issues and a self confidence that at first sight appeared to be close to rock bottom.

But...they made it through my door. They had enough confidence to do that! They dumped an emotionally abusive partner, they had enough self confidence to do that AND find someone else they REALLY cared about.

They lost over 50 pounds of unwanted weight, they had enough self esteem to do that.

They bought themselves a (nearly) new car, they had enough self esteem to believe that they deserved that.

Yet, here was a person who within the first few minutes of meeting me broke down in tears because of their lack of confidence and low self esteem. Or were these attributes really missing?

More than anything else it appeared to me that this client was not remembering past issues but literally regressing to them, i.e. reliving them in the moment. The client was entering their own trance state and it was not a useful one! The memory recall triggered the trance state that stopped them being able to see, know or feel the positive changes they had already made.

In this case my role was mostly to un-hypnotise the client.

What followed was mix of NLP, hypnosis, story telling, goal setting and reframing to show this client (and have the client feel) how things were already different and could be better yet.

This client left laughing; we have another session booked together but I'll guess that with the progress made it will be our last.

Here is the sad thing, this person has been been going through this painful experience for the last four years. It could have been changed long ago and improved the quality of life for the person dramtically.

Beware self-hypnois...it's not always a power for good.

What does your version of reality look like?

Politics is a messy business driven by ideology, religion and or moral perspective, personal belief systems, personal interest and greed. That heady mixture defines a person's notion of reality and so the choices that they make.

One person's reality may be that the State should provide for their needs without asking awkward questions or needing to work for that the money. They believe they have a right to certain essentials of modern life including a home and all that goes in it, transportation, personal communication and money to spend.

Their reality is that the State should pay for this; they have rights and they intend to exercise them.

An alternative version of reality is that the State is a thief who takes money from those who work for it with the threat of violence and imprisonment if you dare to deny the request to pay to give to others who may or may not be deserving. By taking money from many people, the State is able to employ professionals who will come after you if you do not agree to pay the money over willingly. This is called taxation by some and extortion by others depending on who is asking for the money.

Some of that money can then be given to those who think they have a right to receive it. Some will go to other causes that the 'donor' has no control over.

We have several alternative realities here.

Which helps to explain why when you ask if a system like general taxation is fair, relevant or moral you can get some strange reactions from those you ask the question of.

You have asked that person to question their version of reality and that's painful. It's a big question and most of the time big questions are too bothersome to deal with.

Instead you are likely to encounter anger or reproach as a means of not dealing with the big question of their reality.

But, sometimes it's worth asking that question, especially when the State the puts these rules, taxes and laws into place and fails to ask you whether you wanted to be taxed more or where you would like that money to be spent.

My reality and your reality may be utterly different and that's worth thinking about as those in Government decide what money to spend on whom. It's not the State's money. It was taken from me and you and 60 million others under threat of force.

Now does that reality sound like a modern enlightened society or a country run as a mafia fiefdom?

Seeing beauty in the simple things

Honestly there times when the madness of the world almost manages to overwhelm my ability to think as a rational human being.

To defend the freedom of Libyans, we kill some other Libyans. Whilst not actually pursuing a policy of war, we only send in bombs and missiles that make it look like war. It's not war because someone important said so. Even though it involves Armed Forces with guns bombs and missiles.

Our American friends manage to kill an old man in Pakistan who may or not have been Osama Bin Laden. Who may or may not have been declared dead several times already and then dump his body in the sea so that there will be no martyr's grave. Then a militant group in Pakistan kills 70 policeman with two suicide bombers even though there was no martyr's grave for Osama.

What has this got to do with your life? Or my life? Maybe nothing at all except that we are bombarded with this type of news every day and it can make us forget that there is beauty in the world in the most humble of things.

I walked in my garden recently with a camera and looked for beauty. It was everywhere. With a very improvised close up lens here are two of the images that I captured.

Click on the images to see them in their full glory and marvel that a blackberry leaf and dandelion head could be such utterly wonderful and beautiful things.

Aspirin and Anti-despressants don't mix well

I see many clients who are or have been prescribed anti-depressants normally of the SSRI variety such as Prozac.


A recent study shows that the effectiveness of these anti-depressants can be markedly reduced with the patient also takes an anti-inflammatory pain killer such as Aspirin.


Recent research is unclear as to why non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, or NSAIDs, which are a widely used class of pain medicines (and include aspirin and ibuprofen but not acetominephen) should have this effect.


In some cases the effectiveness of the SSRI drugs was reduced completely. 


It's still my belief that ant-depressants are often a chemical fix for unbearable real world problems; they do nothing to take the problem away and only deal with the symptom.


Counselling, coaching and hypnotherapy all have their role to play in dealing with the underlying issue.


The full story is here 


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704132204576285183033104082.html