Crystal Ball gazing for 2011-Forecast & Trends

I gazed deeply into the crystal ball and as the mists cleared here is what I saw: The Trends for 2011
Actually that a lot of old waffle but I do think we'll see a lot of this happen. I may not be a forecaster like Gerald Celente, but the markers for these trends are already in place.

1) An economy that fails to grow as quickly as forecast but still with inflation pushing up prices. The 1970s word Stagflation will become well known again.

2) The slow motion implosion of the Eurozone. The smaller countries overwhelmed with Bank debt will need further support for their still increasing debts. A two speed Eurozone may be imposed as the Germans tire of being the generous uncle who bails the smaller countries out. Debt will have to be restructured either willingly by changing the Euro rules or unwillingly by the collapse of the Euro.

3) Rising unemployment in the UK coupled with rising prices and stagnant wages will lead to more crime and more civil unrest. The rise in crime will lead to calls for "something to be done" and so more draconian police powers will be demanded and put in place.

4) Local taxes of all kinds will rise. Since the Council tax itself is fixed, car parking, planning and other usage based charges will rise by 20-50% as a ways of generating more income for the councils.

5) Local based business with low or no overheads will survive and may even prosper in the confusion of the high street. Expect to see one or more mid-range high street brands collapse. Online sales of commodity items will close those stores with no special USP.

6) Large scale volume manufacturing for many items will continue to move east. Either to Eastern Europe or to China where labour costs (even after recent Chinese wage inflation) are still much lower than in Northern Europe. Watch for more of European manufacturing to be done in North Africa as well. Special trade deals will make it easy import products from this region without duties.

7) Some politicians and media people will start to ask if the Internet needs more regulation. There will be calls for a blogging licence and additional regulation to close down 'alternative' news sources.

8) Government budgets will attempt to pull more cash from the individual through new taxes, not raising allowances and charging for services that used to be free. This may be dressed up in the language of sustainability/green taxes or environmental protection. The money will actually be used to fund the Government deficit, bank debts and to cover part of the fallout of the Eurozone implosion.

9) More people will attempt to follow the 'Good Life' by taking up smallholdings and raising their own animals. Many will revert back to an urban life because of the increasingly complex rules and regulations surrounding farming and animal keeping.

10) GM foods will be presented as the way to deal with the increased food prices. Some will resist this but crops will be planted and local organic production will be blighted by cross contamination of land and produce.

12) Broadcast TV will become increasingly fractured and of poorer quality as more channels are created. The increase in channels will decrease the advertising revenue available per channel and so expect to see more re-runs of old shows and imports of low grade shows from around the English speaking world.

13) One from left field; there will be calls for SSRI anti-depressants to come off prescription, so that they can be used more widely. This will be in response to a huge increase in those diagnosed with some form of depression as a consequence of other major changes outlined above.

Well what do you think of these? Let me know.

End of year updates and news

My blog postings have been a bit spradic this year and partly to make up for that I thought I'd have an end of splurge on news stories that tweaked my interest recently. Then I'll move into Old Moore's Almanack territory and attempt to do some predictions for 2011; without the aid of planetary charts!

Smokers to be given free Nicotine patches
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1341706/Smokers-given-free-nicotine-patches-NHS.html
As reported in the Daily Mail and elsewhere, the UK Department of Health is to spend £250 Million on smoker "Quit Kits" which will include a week's supply of Nicotine patches. The idea of this approach being to help would be quitters through the first few days of not smoking.

I'm not convinced this will be money well spent though; around 20% of the population still smoke, some two thirds are said to want to stop. (The numbers always seem to be rather vague with few sources cited.)

However what I see is young people, especially girls, still starting to smoke (from 13 years upwards judging by my town) as a way of defining their adultness. Ask a 13 year old or a 16 year old what they think their life will be like when they are 30 and you may as well as them what the moon is like. They have no idea and no sense of the potential damage that smoking does to one's health. So they won't stop until film makers and TV program makers stop portraying smoking as 'cool' by association with the stars of the day. That is bigger and much more difficult challenge than handing out nicotine patches.

The challenge with older long established smokers is to deal with the habitual and conditioned responses that smokers have. Hypnotherapy is great for that.

When hypnotherapy CPD goes bad.
A former hypnotherapy student of mine called just before Christmas to wish me the best for the season. As we chatted about her year, she talked about a "Continuing Professional Development" (CPD) course she had attended on rapid inductions in a clinical setting.

Normally these events are fairly mellow with a nice spirit of friendly co-operation and active learning (the attendees pay for the course after all). But on this course it seems that the trainer and his assistants were more interested in getting applause for how good they were than ensuring that the training was effective.

Some of the techniques used involving rapid movements of the head/neck could, according to this lady have been dangerous. (She had to refuse a personal demonstration by an assistant due to previous damage to her own neck/spine. However the trainers did not point out the simple yet obvious conclusion that for some clients this method would be completely wrong and potentially dangerous. That ought to be a cause for some concern.

Congruence?
I know it is sometimes said that when a therapist has dealt with all their own issues they will no longer work with others but there has to be a sense of congruence to be a successful therapist.

If you are a fat lady or gent offering weight loss sessions then perhaps you should start with yourself first?

This idea of being congruent or in alignment with some core values is often used in Neuro Linguistic Programming but surely it applies just as much for hypnotherapy?

It seems that some the 'therapists' attending the training session previously spoken about were not aware that without that congruence positive change was unlikely to happen.

Now here is a something to reflect on...

Listen to this prose poem about our situation and the zoo of our own making.

Thoughtful and though provoking; take a few minutes from your day to listen and watch.

How about this for a Somerset morning?

I have been so busy recently that blog posts have been rather thin on the ground.

However I had to be out early this morning and a fog had settled on the countryside. As I travelled above the fog line this is what I saw.

The picture was taken from the Hinton St George to Dinnington Road in South Somerset.

Hope you like it.