If you have followed my previous posts you'll know that I recently made the move to Linux. (In this case Linux Mint Debian Edition)
Things have been going well so far but as I create my own marketing materials for my hypnotherapy practice, I'm interested in the graphic side of things.
I used Scribus to create an A5 leaflet but discovered that the standard fonts loaded with the distribution were rather...limited.
However I have discovered that it is possible to bring many of the fonts from your Windows machine to your shiny new Linux one.
Rather than explain the whole process take a look at this web page http://www.linuxjournal.com/content/installing-fonts-linux.
I right clicked on my Windows font folder and zipped it into a 40Megabyte file. I transfered this to the new machine with an external hard drive.
Then it's drag and drop time.
I found that I needed to create a new .font folder in my home subdirectory. Then it was a case of unzip the package in the folder.
The next time you open your word processor or DTP program you'll have nearly all your Windows fonts available. I lost some; I'll guess that this is because of some licensing issues. However I'm well pleased to see my favourite fonts on my new machine.
Wednesday, 19 June 2013
Tuesday, 11 June 2013
Moving to Linux part 3, audio recording & mixing
I have recently made the move from Windows to Linux. these few articles will hopefully prove useful to others taking the same journey.
Audio Applications
My work with audio is based on my own need to record, mix and produce self hypnosis tracks for download and for use in my own client sessions. There are other far better resources online for how to set up microphones etc.
To record audio
You can of course record audio straight into your Linux laptop or desktop PC as long as it is equipped with a microphone. The quality is unlikely to be very good though. I have, in the past, used two different recording studios to record voice tracks ready for mixing. However while the quality is excellent it needs more organisation and of course there are costs.
In the end I purchased an Olympus LS11 voice recorder which will save recordings in MP3 or WAV formats. The files are transferred to the PC over a USB link. However you get those voice files recorded, you'll want a way to edit out the ums, ahhs and random breath noises.
There really is only one tool for this, and that is Audacity. It is available in both Windows and Linux formats. It is a program that you get better at using the more you engage with it (obvious really but you train your ears at the same time). Tips on how to use Audacity are worth a blog post on their own, maybe I'll do that next.
Take a look at it here http://audacity.sourceforge.net/
Once you have cut, spliced and otherwise adjusted your voice file, you may wish to mix it with music or sound effects (there are lots of Audacity audio plug-ins freely available as downloads). Audacity can do this but it feels rather clunky compared to a Digital Audio Workstation (DAW).
I loved Traktion on the Windows platform but its development seemed to be abandoned for a long time. There now seems to be a Linux version so I'll look at this again.
So after much trial and error I settled on Ardour as my DAW. You can see more details about it here http://ardour.org/
I won't pretend to be an expert in Linux audio, I'm not. It is different to Windows but similar enough that I can get reasonable results.
Start with these few applications and a little bit of knowledge about recording and you'll soon have your own tracks (hypnosis or otherwise) mixed and finished.
Audio Applications
My work with audio is based on my own need to record, mix and produce self hypnosis tracks for download and for use in my own client sessions. There are other far better resources online for how to set up microphones etc.
To record audio
You can of course record audio straight into your Linux laptop or desktop PC as long as it is equipped with a microphone. The quality is unlikely to be very good though. I have, in the past, used two different recording studios to record voice tracks ready for mixing. However while the quality is excellent it needs more organisation and of course there are costs.
In the end I purchased an Olympus LS11 voice recorder which will save recordings in MP3 or WAV formats. The files are transferred to the PC over a USB link. However you get those voice files recorded, you'll want a way to edit out the ums, ahhs and random breath noises.
There really is only one tool for this, and that is Audacity. It is available in both Windows and Linux formats. It is a program that you get better at using the more you engage with it (obvious really but you train your ears at the same time). Tips on how to use Audacity are worth a blog post on their own, maybe I'll do that next.
Take a look at it here http://audacity.sourceforge.net/
Once you have cut, spliced and otherwise adjusted your voice file, you may wish to mix it with music or sound effects (there are lots of Audacity audio plug-ins freely available as downloads). Audacity can do this but it feels rather clunky compared to a Digital Audio Workstation (DAW).
I loved Traktion on the Windows platform but its development seemed to be abandoned for a long time. There now seems to be a Linux version so I'll look at this again.
So after much trial and error I settled on Ardour as my DAW. You can see more details about it here http://ardour.org/
I won't pretend to be an expert in Linux audio, I'm not. It is different to Windows but similar enough that I can get reasonable results.
Start with these few applications and a little bit of knowledge about recording and you'll soon have your own tracks (hypnosis or otherwise) mixed and finished.
Monday, 10 June 2013
Moving to Linux part 2. What software will work for you?
I wrote previously about making the move to Linux on a new laptop.
Now I'd like to let you know about some of the programs I have found useful in that move.
If Linux is still a mystery to you, the important thing to know is that it is based around the idea of free software. Not just free in the sense of not costing money but also free to be modified and reused without limit. (For more on the concept check out the father of free software Richard M. Stallman).
What this means in practical terms is that almost all the software you need is free (money) but for convenience, not all the software you want is free (open source). Some software uses chunks of non-open source or commercial code especially in areas like audio and video (think YouTube). For some this lack of Open Source is a very big deal, for others less so.
So what about the practical programs you'll want which may not be part of a standard package installation.
Graphics
Photo editing and picture manipulation (like Photoshop) Gimp.
This is often installed with the standard distribution.
For vector drawing (like Adobe Illustrator) use Inkscape No CMYK colour though)
For Desktop publishing (like Adobe InDesign) use Scribus.
For a drawing program like (Microsoft Visio) use Dia.
For 2D CAD work consider LibreCAD.
Office Packages (Wordprocessor, spreadsheet etc)
As a general purpose package use Libreoffice. It will just about everything you need as an alternative to Microsoft Office.
Some may prefer to use OpenOffice which is available as a free download.
Skype, use Skype there is a native Linux version.
For data storage in the cloud with some great ways to share data use Dropbox. There is a native Linux application.
Video applications (web cam)
To get your webcam working check the following applications. Some may work better than others on your hardware.
Cheese allows you to capture stills and video from your web cam and apply effects too.
Guvcview a more basic webcam application that I found easier to get working on my Asus X53 machine.
Video editing
There seem to be plenty of video editing applications out there but I found two that seems to particularly useful; I have not settled on which one will be my main application yet. The first is Openshot, probably the easier of the two applications to use. It seems to be robust with just enough features to your video edited together. It integrates with Inkscape (see above) for producing fancy titles and graphics (or you can just use what is built in).
The second editing application is Kdenlive. This program seems to have more features including a greater number of effects (video transitions for example) but is possibly slightly less easy to get started with. Try both, the software is free after all!
I'll cover audio and other applications in my next post. So if you are waiting to hear how to record your self hypnosis session, stay tuned!
Now I'd like to let you know about some of the programs I have found useful in that move.
If Linux is still a mystery to you, the important thing to know is that it is based around the idea of free software. Not just free in the sense of not costing money but also free to be modified and reused without limit. (For more on the concept check out the father of free software Richard M. Stallman).
What this means in practical terms is that almost all the software you need is free (money) but for convenience, not all the software you want is free (open source). Some software uses chunks of non-open source or commercial code especially in areas like audio and video (think YouTube). For some this lack of Open Source is a very big deal, for others less so.
So what about the practical programs you'll want which may not be part of a standard package installation.
Graphics
Photo editing and picture manipulation (like Photoshop) Gimp.
This is often installed with the standard distribution.
For vector drawing (like Adobe Illustrator) use Inkscape No CMYK colour though)
For Desktop publishing (like Adobe InDesign) use Scribus.
For a drawing program like (Microsoft Visio) use Dia.
For 2D CAD work consider LibreCAD.
Office Packages (Wordprocessor, spreadsheet etc)
As a general purpose package use Libreoffice. It will just about everything you need as an alternative to Microsoft Office.
Some may prefer to use OpenOffice which is available as a free download.
Skype, use Skype there is a native Linux version.
For data storage in the cloud with some great ways to share data use Dropbox. There is a native Linux application.
Video applications (web cam)
To get your webcam working check the following applications. Some may work better than others on your hardware.
Cheese allows you to capture stills and video from your web cam and apply effects too.
Guvcview a more basic webcam application that I found easier to get working on my Asus X53 machine.
Video editing
There seem to be plenty of video editing applications out there but I found two that seems to particularly useful; I have not settled on which one will be my main application yet. The first is Openshot, probably the easier of the two applications to use. It seems to be robust with just enough features to your video edited together. It integrates with Inkscape (see above) for producing fancy titles and graphics (or you can just use what is built in).
The second editing application is Kdenlive. This program seems to have more features including a greater number of effects (video transitions for example) but is possibly slightly less easy to get started with. Try both, the software is free after all!
I'll cover audio and other applications in my next post. So if you are waiting to hear how to record your self hypnosis session, stay tuned!
Saturday, 8 June 2013
Linux for the rest of us...(Some shortcuts for you)
I have been dabbling with Linux as an alternative to Microsoft Windows for quite some time.
Especially with the advent of Windows 8 I no longer wanted to stay on the Windows tread mill.
So recently I purchased a new laptop and decided to go Linux.
In case anyone else should find this interesting I'll share my experience in the hope that my limited knowledge in this are can help other people taking the same path.
I bought a manufacturer refurbished Asus X53 (i7 processor) from Morgan Computer Company.
I removed the rather small hard drive (which had Windows installed) once I had established that the machine worked. I replaced the drive with a Toshiba 750Gbyte unit that was on special offer at PC World.
I had previously created a Linux Mint boot DVD (Nadia version) and so put it into the DVD tray and booted up.
This is what is known as a LIVE disc as all the information is on the DVD and it does not require a hard drive. I made sure that I had the WiFi working so that the laptop could connect to the Internet.
Next I used the option to install the operating system onto the hard drive. Since I had a brand new hard drive I let the installer program use the whole disc but there are other options possible.
After several minutes, a power up, power down sequence and some downloads to update the release I had a brand new install. Great!
The standard install provides application software that can read CD/DVDs, a media player, LibreOffice for spreadsheets/wordprocessing etc and Gimp for image processing.
Adding more software is mostly painless and of course since it open source it is also cost free. I'll talk about packages I use in another post.
Problems? It's taken a couple of different programs to be able to fully use the built in web cam and the SD card reader does not really work. Apart from that all good and I;m pretty sure the web cam thing is sorted.
So now I can record new audio and video programs for hypnotherapy and other self change work on my laptop. That's great for me.
Goodbye Windows....for good.
Especially with the advent of Windows 8 I no longer wanted to stay on the Windows tread mill.
So recently I purchased a new laptop and decided to go Linux.
In case anyone else should find this interesting I'll share my experience in the hope that my limited knowledge in this are can help other people taking the same path.
I bought a manufacturer refurbished Asus X53 (i7 processor) from Morgan Computer Company.
I removed the rather small hard drive (which had Windows installed) once I had established that the machine worked. I replaced the drive with a Toshiba 750Gbyte unit that was on special offer at PC World.
I had previously created a Linux Mint boot DVD (Nadia version) and so put it into the DVD tray and booted up.
This is what is known as a LIVE disc as all the information is on the DVD and it does not require a hard drive. I made sure that I had the WiFi working so that the laptop could connect to the Internet.
Next I used the option to install the operating system onto the hard drive. Since I had a brand new hard drive I let the installer program use the whole disc but there are other options possible.
After several minutes, a power up, power down sequence and some downloads to update the release I had a brand new install. Great!
The standard install provides application software that can read CD/DVDs, a media player, LibreOffice for spreadsheets/wordprocessing etc and Gimp for image processing.
Adding more software is mostly painless and of course since it open source it is also cost free. I'll talk about packages I use in another post.
Problems? It's taken a couple of different programs to be able to fully use the built in web cam and the SD card reader does not really work. Apart from that all good and I;m pretty sure the web cam thing is sorted.
So now I can record new audio and video programs for hypnotherapy and other self change work on my laptop. That's great for me.
Goodbye Windows....for good.
Thursday, 6 June 2013
Stephen Fry attempted suicide....again.
This hit the news in the last couple of days.
Stephen Fry is well known for having had problems with depression and having attempted suicide in the past.
In a recent interview covered here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/celebrity-news-video/10102538/Stephen-Fry-opens-up-about-2012-suicide-attempt.html he talks about what happened to him in 2012.
The quote at the end stood out for me.
Stephen Fry is well known for having had problems with depression and having attempted suicide in the past.
In a recent interview covered here http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/celebrity-news-video/10102538/Stephen-Fry-opens-up-about-2012-suicide-attempt.html he talks about what happened to him in 2012.
The quote at the end stood out for me.
"You may say, how can anybody who's got it all be so stupid as to want to end it all? That's the point, there is no why – it's not the right question.Reasoning is not the answer. Underlying issues of an emotional nature will always overwhelm reason.
"There's no reason. If there were a reason for it, you could reason someone out of it."
Monday, 3 June 2013
Pictures from Cornwall
Sometimes life takes over and other things (like this blog) take a back seat. However I recently spent a couple days in North Cornwall to recharge my batteries and whilst there the weather was fabulous.
When the sun shines in Cornwall it can be a wonderful place to be.
Out came the camera and here are a few pictures from that visit.
When the sun shines in Cornwall it can be a wonderful place to be.
Out came the camera and here are a few pictures from that visit.
| The view from Tar Steps (Exmoor) looking downstream. Tar Steps is an ancient flat stone bridge http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarr_Steps |
| Looking towards Boscastle harbour (Cornwall). Amazing to think how different this scene was in 2004 when the great flood happened |
| Fishing boats in Port Issac Harbour (Cornwall). The entrance to the harbour is bounded by rocks on all sides and very narrow. |
| Fishing boat in Port Issac Harbour. The skipper was polishing the metalwork when I was there, clearly very proud of his boat. It gleamed in the sun. |
Sunday, 21 April 2013
Did you...
Did you come here expecting enlightenment?
Did you arrive through a chance Google search?
Is hypnosis an exciting topic for you?
Well here are some simple things that I believe to be true (your judgment may be different).
Today, remember that the TV is the master hypnotist and the people who run TV are perhaps well meaning, but they'll still lull you into their domain and once in, it's hard to escape. Your brain waves change, your mind becomes less critical and more accepting. You'll take on board almost anything that is said by the TV talking head.
Turn off the TV as often as you can (I know it will go on again)
The second most powerful hypnotist in the world is YOU.
You listen to your own inner voice more often and for greater lengths of time than anyone else does. If the words that you use to yourself are; you fool, you always get it wrong, my life sucks, I must be stupid, I'll never look as good as Beyonce/Brad Pitt, etc. etc. then do not be surprised if the words become true.
You (at least partly) define the reality of your life. Change the way you talk to yourself and your world will change too; like magic.
Did you arrive through a chance Google search?
Is hypnosis an exciting topic for you?
Well here are some simple things that I believe to be true (your judgment may be different).
![]() |
| Nature shows us the simple beauty of a rainbow. No TV required |
Today, remember that the TV is the master hypnotist and the people who run TV are perhaps well meaning, but they'll still lull you into their domain and once in, it's hard to escape. Your brain waves change, your mind becomes less critical and more accepting. You'll take on board almost anything that is said by the TV talking head.
Turn off the TV as often as you can (I know it will go on again)
The second most powerful hypnotist in the world is YOU.
You listen to your own inner voice more often and for greater lengths of time than anyone else does. If the words that you use to yourself are; you fool, you always get it wrong, my life sucks, I must be stupid, I'll never look as good as Beyonce/Brad Pitt, etc. etc. then do not be surprised if the words become true.
You (at least partly) define the reality of your life. Change the way you talk to yourself and your world will change too; like magic.
Saturday, 23 March 2013
A time of worry and concern
It's a strange time make no mistake.
Secret Courts
We now have the drive to secret courts in the UK. A court where you can be tried without knowing what you are being accused of or what the evidence is against you. If this was in China we would be berating the country but here? Most people barely seem aware of what is going on.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21885811
The drive to war.
Our Government seem intent on furthering a war in which we have no interest. In this case it's in Syria (but Mali also applies). The UK has supplied training, bullet proof vests, armoured vehicles and now potentially guns too. Yet this is plainly a jihadist war; Muslin fundamentalists from around the world fighting to 'free' Syria. From what for whom are the questions that should be answered.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21763345
Freedom of the press ends.
Many newspapers did completely disgusting things by invading the privacy of people to write headlines. The Leveson enquiry has now turned into the Leveson stitch up. In a late night deal promoted by the group 'Hacked Off', a new set of draconian press rules are to be put into place not with new laws but with Royal Charter.
These new rules say that if you opt into the regulations any fines for press transgressions will be limited but if you don't opt in, they could bankrupt you. The trouble is no one seems to know if this applies to blogs or Facebook updates or Twitter messages or personal web sites. It's a bloody mess concocted in a hurry by people with lots of vested interest.
Again the UK has become a model for how not to do things in the free world; because we are no longer free. No more can we admonish other countries for their restrictive press laws when ours have become the most controlled of all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21833462
Your money does not really belong to you.
I know you thought that once NI and PAYE had been deducted from your pay packet the rest of the cash (or virtual cash) was yours; but you were wrong.
As the people of Cyprus found out this week, a bank does not hold your deposit for safekeeping. No. Because of our fractional reserve banking system where money is lent and re-lent continuously there is only about 3-4% of real cash in a bank. The other 96-97% is out on loan or in bonds. You actually LOAN your money to a bank. Normally they promise to keep it safe, sometimes to pay interest on it. Now however it becomes clear that as your money was only LOANED to the bank, a Government or other organisation (ECB) can simply take what it wants, call it a tax and you lose 10% or more of your capital. Hard luck.
If they can do it in Cyprus (and Italy in 1992), they can do it anywhere. How is your pension pot looking? That may well be the next juicy morsel to be grabbed.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/bank_loan.htm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/21/cyprus-deposit-tax-eurogroup-chief_n_2922327.html?1363874423
It's snowing!
We are about to enter British Summertime and Easter is nearly here so of course we have.............snow drifts.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2013/mar/11/uk-snow-your-pictures
It sure is a time of concern.
Secret Courts
We now have the drive to secret courts in the UK. A court where you can be tried without knowing what you are being accused of or what the evidence is against you. If this was in China we would be berating the country but here? Most people barely seem aware of what is going on.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21885811
The drive to war.
Our Government seem intent on furthering a war in which we have no interest. In this case it's in Syria (but Mali also applies). The UK has supplied training, bullet proof vests, armoured vehicles and now potentially guns too. Yet this is plainly a jihadist war; Muslin fundamentalists from around the world fighting to 'free' Syria. From what for whom are the questions that should be answered.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21763345
Freedom of the press ends.
Many newspapers did completely disgusting things by invading the privacy of people to write headlines. The Leveson enquiry has now turned into the Leveson stitch up. In a late night deal promoted by the group 'Hacked Off', a new set of draconian press rules are to be put into place not with new laws but with Royal Charter.
These new rules say that if you opt into the regulations any fines for press transgressions will be limited but if you don't opt in, they could bankrupt you. The trouble is no one seems to know if this applies to blogs or Facebook updates or Twitter messages or personal web sites. It's a bloody mess concocted in a hurry by people with lots of vested interest.
Again the UK has become a model for how not to do things in the free world; because we are no longer free. No more can we admonish other countries for their restrictive press laws when ours have become the most controlled of all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21833462
Your money does not really belong to you.
I know you thought that once NI and PAYE had been deducted from your pay packet the rest of the cash (or virtual cash) was yours; but you were wrong.
As the people of Cyprus found out this week, a bank does not hold your deposit for safekeeping. No. Because of our fractional reserve banking system where money is lent and re-lent continuously there is only about 3-4% of real cash in a bank. The other 96-97% is out on loan or in bonds. You actually LOAN your money to a bank. Normally they promise to keep it safe, sometimes to pay interest on it. Now however it becomes clear that as your money was only LOANED to the bank, a Government or other organisation (ECB) can simply take what it wants, call it a tax and you lose 10% or more of your capital. Hard luck.
If they can do it in Cyprus (and Italy in 1992), they can do it anywhere. How is your pension pot looking? That may well be the next juicy morsel to be grabbed.
http://www.apfn.org/apfn/bank_loan.htm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/21/cyprus-deposit-tax-eurogroup-chief_n_2922327.html?1363874423
It's snowing!
We are about to enter British Summertime and Easter is nearly here so of course we have.............snow drifts.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2013/mar/11/uk-snow-your-pictures
It sure is a time of concern.
Friday, 8 February 2013
It was a busy morning so...
We sat back and ate carrot cake.
Sometimes it's nice to indulge.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone
Sometimes it's nice to indulge.
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone
Tuesday, 1 January 2013
A look ahead into 2013
So the world did not end in December 2012. Maybe the Mayans just got bored with producing stone calendars. It has been a momentous year with many changes and events including the continued Arab Spring the Queen's Jubilee, the Olympics and Paralympics as well as a USA presidential election.
Technology - 3D Printing
3D printing will become much accessible to the home user and the small business. The effect of this will an increase in the number UK based companies producing their own metal and plastic parts. This in turn will provide a way to endlessly customise standard mass produced items but also allow new entrants into markets where innovation rather than cost is key.![]() |
| The Wallace version of RepRap 3D printer. Designed for simplicity |
The current low cost MakerBot and RepRap hobbyist products will be joined by more semi-professional 3D printers in the sub £5000 category; this in turn may well provide a basis for small service based bureau style start-ups who can become expert in helping people get started in this new area.
There are some interesting problems beginning to surface in this are. Who owns the rights to a particular design file for a product? If you can download a design as easily as an MP3 file then copyright lawyers will be big winners here. We have also seen groups attempting to design a 3D printable gun. Materials will limit its usefulness to just a few shots but how will gun control be managed in this context?
Technology - Robotics
We are still waiting for the universal robot helper as portrayed in Hollywood films, but each year we get a little closer. We have robot vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers and military bots to disable bombs. New materials technology that emulates the human tendons, better battery capacity and improved computer power will bring us closer to the kind of being seen in the film i.Robot.![]() |
| i, Robot |
Economy
A long grinding, remorseless year is what I see. The UK (Government) is still spending more than it earns; in spite of Government spending cuts we are still increasing the total amount on the UK's credit card. This can only continue as long as the Government can borrow money at a relatively low interest rate. The rest of us are gradually paying down our debts and so the banks are making less money out of us.The UK High Street
With the high street economy still suffering after 5 years of no growth or contraction there will be no joy in this area. Many of the lease agreements written 5 years ago were defined as upwards only rental. When high street sales are falling and other costs (including wages) are rising, there can only be one outcome. Recent victims can be seen here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13977255. Many more shop closures and more chains going into administration. Who looks shaky in 2013? HMV, WHSmith, electrical retailers and perhaps Marks & Spencer too.I also foresee a move by some to change the rateable status of charity shops. Many now appear to have an unfair advantage over regular owner managed shops who pay normal rates.
The Web
This market space will continue to grow as more discretionary spending moves from the high street to the web. There will also be a high degree of 'churn' in this space with many new start-ups and many failures as new models are trialled. Money will be made...and some investors will lose their shirts.Don't be surprised if some people start demanding new on-line taxes to compensate the Government for loss of Corporation tax and business rates.
Inflation
The Bank of England and the Government would have us believe that inflation is around 2.7%. I'm not sure what fudge factors are being applied to keep it that low because most people's experience is that inflation is nearer 10% than 3%. Fuel bills, road fuels, food items and insurance all seem to have gone up markedly. I see no end to this, inflation both real and reported will continue to rise.The Euro
I have been amazed by the way the Euro has been kept going. The ever more ingenious methods adopted by the EU to keep the Euro alive have been amazing to watch. But, those paying the price are the ordinary people of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The vast majority of the 'funny' money provided to Greece is being spun around and channelled back to the banks in Germany, France and Italy to repay interest. In other words the Greek debt is getting bigger, the people are getting poorer and the economy is shrinking. There really is no way out of this terrible situation except through debt forgiveness and letting go of the Euro to allow Greece to get back to a sensible footing.Spain may make it through whilst staying in the Euro, but the pain for ordinary people is already great and will become worse. For more information about the finance markets check out www.zerohedge.com.
Currency Wars
The Central Banks like the US Federal Reserve, The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all engaged in some form of money printing as a way of sustaining Government spending and to prop up their respective economies. All this money eventually ends up somewhere; for the last year this has been in the stock markets and in some property markets (look at how disconnected the London property market is from the rest of the UK with prices that are simply unsustainable anywhere else.)But all this money comes with a price, interest must be paid and the debt is only serviceable whilst the interest rate is low enough. If the interest rates go up, the debt service burden on Government Bonds becomes impossible (as in Greece) and Government and or banking collapse will follow.
The only real alternative to this mess seems to be to allow inflation to deal with the problem. Keep kicking the can down the road and eventually the debt load won't seem so large. Maybe.
Real Wars
All too often currency wars and Government difficulties lead to real wars. Look how Argentina fell apart in the late 1970s. In a coup d'etat the Military came to power and eventually General Galtieri become supreme leader and invaded the Falkland Islands. In the last 12 months we have seen the so called 'Arab Spring' change the whole of North Africa but has it been for the better? I think the jury is still out on this.Now we see a full blown civil war in Syria where foreign fighters and Syrians combined are being recognised by other countries (including the UK) as the legitimate Government of that country; even while Assad is still in power.
If Assad has looked at what happened in Iraq, Libya and Egypt he will do all he can to avoid being caught and I have a feeling he still has some last desperate cards to play. In the meanwhile, the mainstream TV channels almost completely ignore the unrest in some of the Gulf states. There will be more trouble here. Listen out for reports from Oman, Bahrain and Yemen in 2013. Africa will not be quiet either, Mali, Sudan, Somali and Libya will all hit the headlines.
Also look out for asymmetric conflicts like that in Afghanistan. Here a local well motivated fighting force has been able to keep the finest forces from the USA, UK and NATO tied up for years. In the process inflicting heavy casualties and great financial costs to all those involved.
Through the use of suicide bombers, rogue Policemen (and women), and low technology improvised explosive devices, the manpower and resources of the Western forces have been bogged down in a non-traditional, asymmetric, un-winable war. The Taliban know this and so do similar groups in Yemen.
The response?
The Western response to these wars is to increase the use of drone technology both in the air and on the ground. The Reaper drone delivers Hellfire missiles to enemy targets without being seen or heard and with almost no danger that its operation team will be hurt. It is war by remote control and its use will increase dramatically, just as it has over the last few years.Mental Health
We have seen some dreadful stories in 2012 including a number where medication seems to have been part of the disaster. From school shootings in the USA, rising divorce rates and suicides in the UK, it's clear there are many deeply unhappy people who feel unable to go on.Talk based therapy can do a lot to reduce the number of people stuck in depressive illness but it's expensive; highly variable in its outcome and difficult to administer. As a consequence we get an ever increasing use of drug based therapies that often inflict side effects (suicide for example) that are worse than the dis-ease being treated.
Unfortunately I do not see a big change happening here. Drug companies will continue to market medications that have marginal effectiveness for the conditions they are being prescribed for. Family Doctors will continue to diagnose and prescribe these drugs and new mental health conditions will be described that many of us would consider normal human emotions.
DSM-5, the American Psychiatric Manual is nearing completion and with its launch several new conditions are specified. Previously grief was included as depression only if the feeling persisted for more than 2 months, now the drive is to reduce this to a few weeks. This of course will help drug sales but not help the person through the stages of their grief which in the ordinary course of events might take 6 months to 1 year.
Do you have a stroppy child? No actually you have a child with 'oppositional defiance disorder'; more drugs please! (Or maybe look at the type of diet the child is eating and the home environment before going down the drug path.)
Although this manual is drafted by Americans, the contents do filter into the UK healthcare arena and I fear for a generation of children who will be drugged from 5 years up because...they are acting like children. I hope I am so wrong on this.
Growth Areas
People to people lending (Peer to Peer) where the banks do not loan the money but would be investors get a better return than the current savings rates. Check http://uk.zopa.com/ (there are others).Business' being started with crowdfunding. Check http://www.crowdfunding.com and http://www.kickstarter.com. It's been big in the USA for a while and now it's come to the UK. Small investors put a variable amount of money into a project and get some form of return when the project completes. That may be a film release or a technology product or a T-shirt. There are some amazing projects out there looking for funding.
The Black economy. If the Government of any country makes it too difficult to abide by the normal rules then people will just ignore them or find loop holes to avoid them (Starbucks tax anyone?). So I expect to see many more people simply ignoring the cascade of complex regulations from Government or the EU and just getting on with their own thing. Creating value and making a living. The Government will of course respond by drafting new rules and attempting to ban cash transactions above a certain value (as has been applied in Italy). Personally I hope they fail miserably in this little ruse.
What about you? What do you think?
Labels:
economy,
mental health,
robotics,
technology,
trends 2013
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