A look ahead into 2013

So the world did not end in December 2012. Maybe the Mayans just got bored with producing stone calendars. It has been a momentous year with many changes and events including the continued Arab Spring the Queen's Jubilee, the Olympics and Paralympics as well as a USA presidential election.

Technology - 3D Printing

3D printing will become much accessible to the home user and the small business. The effect of this will an increase in the number UK based companies producing their own metal and plastic parts. This in turn will provide a way to endlessly customise standard mass produced items but also allow new entrants into markets where innovation rather than cost is key.

The Wallace version of RepRap 3D printer. Designed for simplicity

The current low cost MakerBot and RepRap hobbyist products will be joined by more semi-professional 3D printers in the sub £5000 category; this in turn may well provide a basis for small service based bureau style start-ups who can become expert in helping people get started in this new area.

There are some interesting problems beginning to surface in this are. Who owns the rights to a particular design file for a product? If you can download a design as easily as an MP3 file then copyright lawyers will be big winners here. We have also seen groups attempting to design a 3D printable gun. Materials will limit its usefulness to just a few shots but how will gun control be managed in this context?

Technology - Robotics

We are still waiting for the universal robot helper as portrayed in Hollywood films, but each year we get a little closer. We have robot vacuum cleaners, lawn mowers and military bots to disable bombs. New materials technology that emulates the human tendons, better battery capacity and improved computer power will bring us closer to the kind of being seen in the film i.Robot.

i, Robot

Look out for many news stories in this area as demographics in Japan, Europe and the Russia (ageing populations and too few births) means that older citizens will need increasing amounts of help.

Economy

A long grinding, remorseless year is what I see. The UK (Government) is still spending more than it earns; in spite of Government spending cuts we are still increasing the total amount on the UK's credit card. This can only continue as long as the Government can borrow money at a relatively low interest rate. The rest of us are gradually paying down our debts and so the banks are making less money out of us.

The UK High Street

With the high street economy still suffering after 5 years of no growth or contraction there will be no joy in this area. Many of the lease agreements written 5 years ago were defined as upwards only rental. When high street sales are falling and other costs (including wages) are rising, there can only be one outcome. Recent victims can be seen here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13977255. Many more shop closures and more chains going into administration. Who looks shaky in 2013? HMV, WHSmith, electrical retailers and perhaps Marks & Spencer too.

I also foresee a move by some to change the rateable status of charity shops. Many now appear to have an unfair advantage over regular owner managed shops who pay normal rates.

The Web

This market space will continue to grow as more discretionary spending moves from the high street to the web. There will also be a high degree of 'churn' in this space with many new start-ups and many failures as new models are trialled. Money will be made...and some investors will lose their shirts.

Don't be surprised if some people start demanding new on-line taxes to compensate the Government for loss of Corporation tax and business rates.

Inflation

The Bank of England and the Government would have us believe that inflation is around 2.7%. I'm not sure what fudge factors are being applied to keep it that low because most people's experience is that inflation is nearer 10% than 3%. Fuel bills, road fuels, food items and insurance all seem to have gone up markedly. I see no end to this, inflation both real and reported will continue to rise.

The Euro

I have been amazed by the way the Euro has been kept going. The ever more ingenious methods adopted by the EU to keep the Euro alive have been amazing to watch. But, those paying the price are the ordinary people of Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland. The vast majority of the 'funny' money provided to Greece is being spun around and channelled back to the banks in Germany, France and Italy to repay interest. In other words the Greek debt is getting bigger, the people are getting poorer and the economy is shrinking. There really is no way out of this terrible situation except through debt forgiveness and letting go of the Euro to allow Greece to get back to a sensible footing.

Spain may make it through whilst staying in the Euro, but the pain for ordinary people is already great and will become worse. For more information about the finance markets check out www.zerohedge.com.

Currency Wars

The Central Banks like the US Federal Reserve, The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are all engaged in some form of money printing as a way of sustaining Government spending and to prop up their respective economies. All this money eventually ends up somewhere; for the last year this has been in the stock markets and in some property markets (look at how disconnected the London property market is from the rest of the UK with prices that are simply unsustainable anywhere else.)

But all this money comes with a price, interest must be paid and the debt is only serviceable whilst the interest rate is low enough. If the interest rates go up, the debt service burden on Government Bonds becomes impossible (as in Greece) and Government and or banking collapse will follow.

The only real alternative to this mess seems to be to allow inflation to deal with the problem. Keep kicking the can down the road and eventually the debt load won't seem so large. Maybe.

Real Wars

All too often currency wars and Government difficulties lead to real wars. Look how Argentina fell apart in the late 1970s. In a coup d'etat the Military came to power and eventually General Galtieri become supreme leader and invaded the Falkland Islands. In the last 12 months we have seen the so called 'Arab Spring' change the whole of North Africa but has it been for the better? I think the jury is still out on this.

Now we see a full blown civil war in Syria where foreign fighters and Syrians combined are being recognised by other countries (including the UK) as the legitimate Government of that country; even while Assad is still in power.

If Assad has looked at what happened in Iraq, Libya and Egypt he will do all he can to avoid being caught and I have a feeling he still has some last desperate cards to play. In the meanwhile, the mainstream TV channels almost completely ignore the unrest in some of the Gulf states. There will be more trouble here. Listen out for reports from Oman, Bahrain and Yemen in 2013. Africa will not be quiet either, Mali, Sudan, Somali and Libya will all hit the headlines.

Also look out for asymmetric conflicts like that in Afghanistan. Here a local well motivated fighting force has been able to keep the finest forces from the USA, UK and NATO tied up for years. In the process inflicting heavy casualties and great financial costs to all those involved.

Through the use of suicide bombers, rogue Policemen (and women), and low technology improvised explosive devices, the manpower and resources of the Western forces have been bogged down in a non-traditional, asymmetric, un-winable war. The Taliban know this and so do similar groups in Yemen.

The response?

The Western response to these wars is to increase the use of drone technology both in the air and on the ground. The Reaper drone delivers Hellfire missiles to enemy targets without being seen or heard and with almost no danger that its operation team will be hurt. It is war by remote control and its use will increase dramatically, just as it has over the last few years.

Mental Health

We have seen some dreadful stories in 2012 including a number where medication seems to have been part of the disaster. From school shootings in the USA, rising divorce rates and suicides in the UK, it's clear there are many deeply unhappy people who feel unable to go on.

Talk based therapy can do a lot to reduce the number of people stuck in depressive illness but it's expensive; highly variable in its outcome and difficult to administer. As a consequence we get an ever increasing use of drug based therapies that often inflict side effects (suicide for example) that are worse than the dis-ease being treated.

Unfortunately I do not see a big change happening here.  Drug companies will continue to market medications that have marginal effectiveness for the conditions they are being prescribed for. Family Doctors will continue to diagnose and prescribe these drugs and new mental health conditions will be described that many of us would consider normal human emotions.

DSM-5, the American Psychiatric Manual is nearing completion and with its launch several new conditions are specified. Previously grief was included as depression only if the feeling persisted for more than 2 months, now the drive is to reduce this to a few weeks. This of course will help drug sales but not help the person through the stages of their grief which in the ordinary course of events might take 6 months to 1 year.

Do you have a stroppy child? No actually you have a child with 'oppositional defiance disorder'; more drugs please! (Or maybe look at the type of diet the child is eating and the home environment before going down the drug path.)

Although this manual is drafted by Americans, the contents do filter into the UK healthcare arena and I fear for a generation of children who will be drugged from 5 years up because...they are acting like children. I hope I am so wrong on this.

Growth Areas

People to people lending (Peer to Peer) where the banks do not loan the money but would be investors get a better return than the current savings rates. Check http://uk.zopa.com/ (there are others).

Business' being started with crowdfunding. Check http://www.crowdfunding.com and http://www.kickstarter.com. It's been big in the USA for a while and now it's come to the UK. Small investors put a variable amount of money into a project and get some form of return when the project completes. That may be a film release or a technology product or a T-shirt. There are some amazing projects out there looking for funding.

The Black economy. If the Government of any country makes it too difficult to abide by the normal rules then people will just ignore them or find loop holes to avoid them (Starbucks tax anyone?). So I expect to see many more people simply ignoring the cascade of complex regulations from Government or the EU and just getting on with their own thing. Creating value and making a living. The Government will of course respond by drafting new rules and attempting to ban cash transactions above a certain value (as has been applied in Italy). Personally I hope they fail miserably in this little ruse.

What about you? What do you think?

Depression and the link to Omega oils

The Food Programme goes out on the BBC Radio 4 network in the UK. The most recent show discussed the essential fatty acids, Omega 3 and Omega 6 and their effect on both our physical and our mental wellbeing.

Omega 3 and Omega 6 are essential fatty acids that we can only obtain from our food. Scientists say, ideally, they should be in balance in the body, at a ratio of 2:1 for Omega 6 to Omega 3. But the average in the UK is around 10 : 1.

While the government health departments continue to promote the idea of reducing saturated fats, it's possible that some of the damaging effects attributed to these normally animal fats should have been attributed to Omega 6.

We need both Omega 3 & 6 but in the last thirty years we have changed our diet so that it includes many more seed oils and it is these that contribute the Omega 6.

What foods contain Omega 3?
Salmon, flax seeds and walnuts are excellent sources of omega 3 fatty acids.

Very good sources of these healthy fats include scallops, cauliflower, cabbage, cloves and mustard seeds.

Good sources of these fats include halibut, shrimp, cod, tuna, soybeans, tofu, kale, collard greens, and Brussels sprouts.

What foods contain Omega 6?
Cooking Oils - sunflower, safflower, corn, cottonseed, peanut and soybean
Egg yolks
Grain fed meats, particularly organ meats
Farm raised fish
All manner of processed foods

Why is this important?
According to Professor Michael Crawford of the Institute of Brain Chemistry and Human Nutrition we need much more Omega 3 than we consume today. Ideally the ratio of Omega 3 to 6 would be aroud 1:2. The current epidemic of mental illness and arthritis, he says, is because we have this balance wrong. He believes we need to consume fewer Omega 6 essential fatty acids and expresses his concern at government health messages regarding Omega 3 essential fatty acids found in fish and all seafood.

Put simply, to maintain good mental health we should eat much more fish, as he says "we once came from the sea". This Omega 3 vs Omega 6 balance became far worse in the 20th century as we moved away from eating fresh fish and towards processed foods made with vegetable oils.

To look at the BBC programme web site click here.

My own 'take away' from the program was to reduce my sunflower oil intake, keep taking cod liver oil capsules once a day and use olive oil (a monounsaturated oil) when possible.

The virtues of tea and the perils of hot drinks

Since the Dutch went to China (or possibly Japan) and discovered the medicinal drink of tea, it has come an awfully long way.

The British were introduced to it by the Dutch and Charles II's wife (who was actually Portuguese) made it popular. In 1664 the English East India Company brought the gift of tea to the British king and queen. In the same year the British took over New Amsterdam, named it New York, and the British tea tradition began.

Tea has been called the drink of Britain in spite of the fact that almost none is grown in the UK. (There is at least one small tea growing farm in Cornwall.) It has been the beverage that fuelled the growth of empire.

Tea has been in the news again recently, it appears that regular consumption of tea may boost your memory (BBC story here) and reduce the effects of Alzheimer's disease.

If the health benefits are what you are looking for then Green tea is the way to. If like me nothing gets you started in the morning like a cup of tea then it's the black leaf every time and this still has some protective effects on the brain.

Black tea or traditional English breakfast tea, is derived from the same plant as green tea, Camellia sinensis, but has a different taste and appearance because it is fermented.

Hot tea can kill!
But now there is shock news from Iran that drinking your tea too hot can increase the risk of throat cancer! It appears that if you regularly drink tea that is hotter than 70 degress C, it increases the risk of throat cancer. This thought to be because of the repeated damage to the cells in the throat from the heat of the liquid. In Iran, tea is typically drunk black i.e. with no milk. In Britain, most people add milk and this is enough to lower the temperature to around 60 degrees C.

More tea Vicar? Splash of milk? Lovely!

Tax chocolate to beat obesity?

Yesterday the idea of taxing chocolate as a way of beating obesity and diabetes was proposed by David Walker, a GP (family doctor) from Scotland.

Unsurprisingly many people took a dim view of this proposal, chocolate it seems is about much more than a sweet snack. Chocolate is eaten as much to change mood as anything else; typically it's eaten as aid to emotional well being not because we are hungry.

Putting a tax on something that is used to change our mood won't change consumption but will take more from the pockets of those who love chocolate.

The proposal ignores the underlying reason why we eat chocolate; it's only when we can deal effectively with the situation that causes low moods that consumption of sweet, fatty treats will reduce.

Is £93Million enough?

The UK Government recently announced an additional £13Million for mental health services to help them cope with the number of people suffering because of the economic downturn. This is in addition to the £80Million funding already provided to Primary Care Trusts.

But the question is, what will that £13Million buy?

If we assume that an average counselling or therapy session costs about £50 (for an hour) how many people will that £13Million help?

£13Million divided by £50 is 260,000 sessions. At 6 session per person that's about 43000 people that could be helped, assuming that none of that money gets swallowed up in administration (unlikley).

But with unemployment numbers set to top 3 million people this looks like a very half hearted response to the impending problem.

Even if just one in ten of those unemployed needed help that £13Million looks hopelessly inadequate. Compared to the vast sums being deployed to keep the banks afloat the difference is startling.

The term recession depression is likely to crop up a lot more in the news over the next 12 months.

Health and the harmonica

I talked about harmonicas yesterday and I found a snippet about how playing the instrument can help improve breathing for those with pulmonary conditions. It seems that playing the harmonica exercises all the right chest muscles to improve breathing.

Follow this link to check out the video story from a medical centre in the USA.

The power of music to heal

I have a love of music and especially the harmonica. It's not that I'm a great player (I'm not), but I enjoy the creativity of playing and the joy of listening to others play.

So I take an interest in other players and teachers on the web and one of those is Adam Gussow. He sells teaching products on line and has a testimonial page for those who have used his products. This testimonial really caught my attention

Hello Adam,

My name is Yohan and I live in Quebec, Canada, in a small city calles Ste-Sophie not to far from Montreal. I am writing this e-mail to say thank you for all the time you are taking and all the videos you are making for Youtube. I have a little story for you if you have the time to read it because my harmonica maybe saved a man’s life.

I am a paramedic here in Quebec and have been for 4 year now. I love my job and love to help people the best I can. Once in a while I even save a life. A few months ago I was looking an instrument to play. I’m not rich so I thought the harp would be nice and not to expensive. Not only that I can prictice on the job when I’m not on a call. I bought a C harp and started to listen to your videos on Youtube. The minute I started I loved playing and now the harp is always on me whereever I go. After a few months of playing I can say that I am an ADVANCED BEGINNER to INTERMEDIATE player. Now here is the story. A few weeks ago I was on the job and it was a boring day. It was raining and we had no calls. Me and my partner are just sitting in the ambulance on the verge of falling asleep. Finally the dispatch calls us for a man wanting to end his life and we are called to help the police who are already there. We get to the man’s house and all we hear is yelling. The police and man are almost fighting. The man who is in his late 50's does not want to go to the hospital and all he wants to do is die. As the man sees me and my partner walk in he is even more pissed off. The man is not armed he is just sitting in his couch and he dose not want to leave his house but he said he want to commit suicide. (I don’t know how it works in the states but here in Canada it is illegal do commit suicide and I can’t leave the man there knowing what he will do when I leave.) After 10 minutes of yelling between the police and the man, I reach in my pocket and pull out my harp. I look at it, bring it to my mouth and start playing... I started with Oh Suzanna and then other song that I learned by ear. When I started playing everyone stopped yelling. My partner was looking at me with this big question mark on his face saying what the hell are you doing? After a minute or so the police and the man had big smiles on their faces. Then I stopped playing put the harp away and everyone was looking at me. The man looks up at me and said that he had not smiled like that in years. I then tell him that music always dose that to me too and if he wants to talk about it on our way to the hospital I would love too. I did not think i would work but the man got up took his jacket kissed his wife and told her he would be back later. Everyone had the same question on their mind including me, what in the world just happed. All this yelling just few minutes ago, a little harp, and now everything is calm and the man is coming without a fight. As I sat with the man in the back of the Ambulance the man told me he use to play in a small band years back and me playing brought back lots of memories. We talk about other things for we had 45 minutes ride to the closed hospital. I told him he was not alone and dieing was not the only way out. When we got to the hospital the man thanked me. It was probably the most sincere thank you I ever got in my life. I will never forget the way that man looked and smiled at me. Did i really save his life? I dont know. Did he get help? I dont know. The only thing I know is that he did not do it on that day.

Well that is pretty much the story. I am not much of a storyteller so I told it the best that I could. From what I learned from you helped another man. I want to thank you again and keep up the good work!

--Yohan, Quebec

I could discuss how the music was a trigger that took him into a more resourceful state or talk about the power of music to heal, but I think the story itself is eloquent enough.